Monday – 03 February 2020
- Caixin Manufacturing PMI (CNY, GMT 01:45) – The Caixin Manufacturing PMI is expected to hold close to neutral, at 51.5 for January.
- Manufacturing PMI (EUR, GMT 01:45) – The German Manufacturing PMI is likely to once again confirm a recession in the manufacturing sector, at 45.2 for January.
- ISM Manufacturing PMI (USD, GMT 15:00) – The ISM Index is expected to tick up to 47.5 in January from 47.2 in December, compared to a 14-year high of 60.8 in August of ’18.
Tuesday – 04 February 2020
- Interest Rate Decision (AUD, GMT 03:30) – No surprises are expected in the RBA’s interest rate decision, while its statement should provide important insights regarding the future of the Australian economy. Market positioning in Australian cash rate futures implies a 19% probability for a 25 bp rate cut, down from the 58% odds being given before the release of an unexpectedly solid employment report out of Australia.
- Labour Market Data (NZD, GMT 21:45) – The final reading for Q4 employment change is expected to show few positive labor reports. The unemployment rate is anticipated at 3.8% from 4.2%, while participation rate is seen rising at 71.1%.
Wednesday – 05 February 2020
- RBA’s Governor Lowe speech (AUD, GMT 01:30)
- ADP Employment Change (USD, GMT 13:15) – Employment change is seen drifting to 155k in the number of employed people in January, compared to the 202k reading seen last month.
- Trade Balance (USD, GMT 13:30) – The trade deficit is expected to widen in December to -$49.7 bln from -$43.1 bln in November. The exports are expected to rise 0.3% to $209.3 bln, and imports to rebound by 2.9% to $259.1 bln. A rebound is expected for both oil import prices and volume that prompt a $3 bln petroleum import bounce, and also for most other commodity components as well, following outsized November declines. Imports from China have sharply undershot the usual seasonal pattern since July, with a particularly big hit in October and November. Tariff front running in late-2018 and early-2019 is now being unwound, though we expect some give-back for this pattern in December.
- ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (USD, GMT 15:00) – The ISM-NMI Index is expected to rise to 55.1 in January from 55.0 in December and a recent low of 52.6 in September, versus a 13-year high of 60.8 in September of 2018.
Thursday – 06 February 2020
RBA’s Governor Lowe speech (AUD, GMT 01:30)
European Commission releases Economic Growth Forecasts (EUR, GMT 10:00)
Friday – 07 February 2020
- NFP and Labour Market Data (USD, GMT 13:30) – A 50k January Nonfarm payroll rise is seen, following a 145k increase in December. The jobless rate should hold steady at 3.5% for a third month and average hourly earnings should rise 0.3% m/m, for a y/y gain of 3.0%. We will get the annual revisions for the establishment survey with the January report, and guidance suggests a -501k revision in the March 2019 payroll level that implies -42k reductions per month, on average, for the twelve months ending last March.
- Labour Market Data (CAD, GMT 13:30) – Canada’s employment rebounded 35.2k in December after the 71.2k plunge in November. The unemployment rate fell to 5.6% from 5.9%, undershooting projections for an incremental dip to 5.8%. The participation rate dipped to 65.5% from 65.6%. For January, the unemployment rate is expected to rise at 5.8% while participation rate should remain unchanged.
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Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
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