- Manufacturing PMI (CNY, GMT 01:00) – The NBS Manufacturing PMI is expected to massively decline to 4.4 in March from 35.7, as a subsequence of the shut down after the lunar new year holiday.
- Gross Domestic Product (GBP, GMT 06:00) – GDP is the economy’s most important figure. Q4’s GDP is expected to be unchanged at 0% q/q and 1.1% y/y.
- Unemployment data (EUR, GMT 07:55) – The German unemployment rate in March is expected to have increased to 5.1% from 5.0%, while unemployment change is expected to have peaked to 30K from February’s drop to -10K.
- Consumer Price Index (EUR, GMT 09:00) –HCPI inflation dropped back to 1.2% y/y in February from 1.4% y/y in the previous month, while core inflation actually moved up to 1.2% y/y from 1.1% y/y in January. This month’s core is expected unchanged, while HICP is anticipated lower at 0.8% y/y/.
- Gross Domestic Product (CAD, GMT 12:30) – Canada GDP results for January are seen to be slowing down, at a monthly rate of 0.2% compared to 0.3% last month.
- CB Consumer Confidence (USD, GMT 14:00) – The Conference Board Index is expected to have decreased to 121.0, compared to 130.7 in the previous month.
Wednesday – 01 April 2020
- Caixin Manufacturing PMI (CNY, GMT 01:45) – The Caixin manufacturing PMI is expected to spike to 46.5 from 40.3 in February.
- ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (USD, GMT 12:15) – The ADP Employment survey is seen at 216k for March compared to the 183K in February.
- ISM Manufacturing PMI (USD, GMT 14:00) – The ISM index is expected to fall to 43.0 in March from 50.1 in February, compared to a 14-year high of 60.8 in August of 2018.
- EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change (USOIL, GMT 14:30)
Thursday – 02 April 2020
- Trade balance (USD, GMT 12:30) – The US trade deficit narrowed -6.7% to -$45.3 bln in January following the 11.0% December jump to -$48.6 bln. February’s one is expected to widen further.
Friday – 03 April 2020
- Retail Sales (AUD, GMT 00:30) – February’s Retail sales could be improved by 0.4%, following a 0.3% January loss.
- Event of the Week – Non-Farm Payrolls (USD, GMT 12:30) – A -100k March nonfarm payroll drop is anticipated, following 273k increases in both February and January. This is based on assumptions such as the -20k factory jobs drop in March, and a 47k boost from assumed Census hiring as this temporary job count starts to climb more rapidly. The jobless rate should rise to 3.8% from 3.5%, as COVID-19 disruptions start to take their toll.
- ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (USD, GMT 14:00) – The ISM-NMI index is expected to fall to 49.0 from 57.3 in February, versus a recent low of 53.5 in September of 2019 and a 13-year high of 61.2 in September of 2018. The “soft data” measures are finally starting to show a hit from coronavirus disruptions and the emerging OPEC price war, and these hits should be bigger for the late-March reports than the early-March reports.
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Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
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