- PBoC Interest Rate Decision (CNY, GMT 01:30) –The People’s Bank of China injected $100 billion into the economy through a reduction in reserve ratios for banks, while it also offered discounts to banks’ reserve ratios of between half and 1 percentage point from their original level.
Tuesday – 21 April 2020
- RBA Minutes and Gov. Lowe Speech (AUD, GMT 01:30 & 05:00) – The RBA minutes should provide guidance as to whether the RBA members are actually prepared for further easing. The bank in its last meeting refrained from cutting interest rates, while pledging to maintain its new (as of March) yield target on 3-year bonds at 0.25%. This, coupled with the Australian government’s fiscal response, was considered a big enough policy response to the prevailing headlines caused by domestic and global coronavirus containment measures.
- Average Earnings (GBP, GMT 06:00) – Average Earnings excluding bonus are expected to have grown by 3.2% in February. The ILO unemployment rate is expected to have declined slightly at 3.8% (3M).
- Economic Sentiment (EUR, GMT 09:00) – German ZEW economic sentiment for April is expected to have improved slightly at -43.0, after plunging to -49.5 from 8.7 in March.
- Retail Sales (USD, GMT 12:30) – February is expected to have flattened (0.0%) for headline retail sales while the ex-auto figure is expected to be unchanged.
Wednesday – 22 April 2020
- Consumer Price Index (GBP, GMT 06:00) – Prices are expected to have eased in March, with overall inflation expected to stand at 1.7% y/y, and core at 1.5% from 1.7% y/y last month.
- Consumer Price Index and Core (CAD, GMT 12:30) – The average of the three core CPI measures for March is expected to come out lower than last month, at 2.1% y/y from 2.2% y/y. Economic data is on the back burner as the market grapples with the fallout from COVID-19. Canada has closed its border to all but Americans. PM Trudeau revealed a stimulus plan which is worth about 1% of Canada’s economy.
Thursday – 23 April 2020
- European Council Meeting
- Retail Sales (GBP, GMT 06:00) – UK retail sales expected to finally give the first real insight into the UK’s post-lockdown economic hit.
- Markit PMI (EUR, GMT 07:30-08:00) – The prel. April manufacturing PMI is forecasted to register a downwards reading to 40.0 following the 44.5 last month. Services, on the flip side, are seen higher at 39.0 from 26.4.
- Jobless Claims (USD, GMT 12:30) – US initial jobless claims fell -1,370k to 5,245k in the week ended April 11 after easing -252k to 6,615k in the week ended April 4. The disruptions from COVID-19 and the government’s policies including containment and relief measures are expected to continue boosting claims to unprecedented levels.
Friday – 24 April 2020
- German IFO (EUR, GMT 08:00) – German IFO business confidence is seen drifting to 77.2after it fell back to 86.1 – the lowest reading since 2009. Germany is in lockdown, even if restrictions are still not quite as strict as in other countries, with death rates still relatively low. Still, it is clear that there will be a sharp recession.
- Durable Goods (USD, GMT 12:30) – Durable goods orders are expected to fall -13.0% in March with a -23% plunge in transportation orders, after a 1.2% headline orders increase in February that benefited from a 4.6% transportation orders rebound.
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Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
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