USDIndex – The Dollar has strengthened after home sales came out better than expected, at 44.3% from the 19.7% predicted and higher than -21.8% seen last month, boosting also stock markets. The US returned to the positive with S&P +1.47%, NASDAQ +1.2% and Dow Jones +2.32%.
It looks like the USDIndex’s resumption attempt in the second half of June was not as effective as expected, with safe haven demand falling after the May lockdown. As a result of the latter, the US Dollar seems to be based on more internal economic factors. Therefore, this week we must pay special attention to US economic data. Today, the Chicago PMI index numbers are due alongside consumer confidence and Fed President Powell’s testimony, and tomorrow the ADP employment numbers and the PMI-ISM index will highlight US economic calendar this week , Tthe non-farm payrolls – which have moved to Thursday because Friday is the National Day and the market is closed.
However, the USDIndex trend still has significant obstacles in the uptrend. A potential bearish flag trend could be spotted which could be the continuation of the downtrend if it is confirmed with a strong pullback. That is still below the 200-EMA and followed by Golden cross (50-EMA and 200-EMA), all of which are in line with momentum indicators such as MACD that are still in the negative.
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Chayut Vachirathanakit
Market Analyst – HF Educational Office – Thailand
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