XAUUSD, H4
Gold price remains below 1800 after the Dollar strengthened following the US economic numbers yesterday. Although Retail and Philadelphia Fed production numbers were better than expected, the weekly unemployment claims numbers were higher than expected at 1.3 million, meaning that the number of unemployed has exceeded 1.00 million for the 17th consecutive week.
Meanwhile, the daily number of COVID-19 infections does not seem to be reducing, according to the WHO report yesterday. New infections around the world were at 226,000 and the number of deaths yesterday hit a record high for July. The US stock market closed down and the 10-year US bond yields dropped slightly too yesterday.
From a technical standpoint, Gold H4 prices are still in the bullish flag trend seen throughout the week. But in the larger time frame of the uptrend, the price has been seen below the channel’s lower border and the EMA50 line since last night, including the MACD that has cut below 0, indicating a trend that gold prices may continue to fall. Today the first support level is at the low level of 1792, which if broken could see a fall to 1775, but if able to hold above the EMA50 line, the first resistance will be at 1810.
The fall of gold prices yesterday makes the rising wedge reversal pattern in the Daily timeframe more likely to come to fruition today, if the price of gold can break through the lower border. This may be a major turning point in trends.
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Chayut Vachirathanakit
Market Analyst – HF Educational Office – Thailand
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