In short yes. Tonight (October 7) is the vice-presidential, one and only, head to head debate and after last week’s bad tempered, chaotic first presidential debate expectations were limited. Indeed little attention or significance is traditionally given the V-P debate, however, the debate has taken on a new significance following the news flow in the last few days. “Expect the unexpected” is a bit of a cliché and one often used to describe the first four years of the Trump presidency but the last few days have been just that.
Tonight, it is the turn of Vice-president Mike Pence and the lady who would like his job, Democratic vice-presidential nominee Kamala Harris to debate the issues that matter most to Americans and to their respective chances of success on November 3rd. The ages of their immediate bosses (Trump is 74 and Biden 77, making them 78 and 81 respectively in 2024) is always on the radar, a risk factor that has heightened interest following the President’s Covid-19 hospitalization. The reins of power pass to the vice-president if the President becomes incapacitated, for any reason, for any period of time. Pence, 61, and Ms. Harris, 55 are renowned for their debating and oratory skills and tonight’s debate should be much more mannered and coherent, even with its added significance.
Five key areas of interest tonight could be:
COVID-19 – The president’s handling of the crisis and his very own infection is likely to be a point of sparky debate and hold attention of the live audience in the University of Utah as well as the millions tuning-in on TV. Pence will clearly defend the administration’s handling of the crisis (after all he chairs the White House task force) and the Presidents infection and apparent rapid recovery. Ms. Harris, chosen by Biden, particularly for her “attack-dog” style will be promoting the inverse story of needless deaths and incompetency by the administration.
The Economy – Old, safe ground and simple messages from Pence reiterating the “best ever” economy “making America great again” pre-pandemic. The economy is safe in the president’s hands and taxes will be reduced. How Pence deals with the sudden ending of additional fiscal support talks by the President earlier today is a curved-ball he will have to deal with. Ms. Harris on the other hand will point to the millions of jobless Americans, the preference the administration has shown to big business and the imbalances and stuttering recovery of the US economy.
Other hot topics which are polarizing the electorate include the state and future direction of Healthcare, Law & Order (including Policing, the Gun lobbies and the summer of disorder) and the Supreme Court and the likely nomination of Amy Coney Barrett to the supreme court to replace Ruth Bader Ginsberg.
Foreign policy, Trade and the Environment are likely to receive less airtime.
If the Polls are to be believed the Democrats could not only win the Presidency, but the Senate too, but with over three weeks to polling day, the outcome is still far from certain. The key swing states and potentially, just a few voters within those swing states, could determine the result on November 3.
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Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
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