Events to Look Out for Next Week

• Services and Manufacturing PMI (EUR, GMT 08:30 – 09:00) – Eurozone October manufacturing PMI revised up to 54.8 from 54.4, services also stronger than feared, leaving the composite at 50.0. The preliminary November composite PMI meanwhile is expected to show contraction at 49.3,  due to weakness in manufacturing PMI number.
• Services and Manufacturing PMI (GBP, GMT 09:30) – The final October Composite PMI revised down to 52.1 from 52.9, with services PMI down to 51.4 and manufacturing PMI up to 53.7.
• Services and Manufacturing PMI (USD, GMT 14:45) – US preliminary Markit PMI manufacturing index expected to hold unchanged to 53.4 in November. The preliminary Service PMI is seen at 54.6 from 56.9.

Tuesday – 24 November 2020

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• German GDP and  IFO (EUR, GMT 07:00 & 09:00) – The final German Gross Producer Index for Q3 is expected to slump to -10.1% after it rebounded 8.2% q/q  last month. Meanwhile the Business Sentiment Index for November is seen at 93.00 from 92.7. The Business Sentiment Index released by the CESifo Group is closely watched as an early indicator of current conditions and business expectations in Germany.
• Consumer confidence (USD, GMT 15:00) – Consumer Confidence is expected to rise to 104.0 from 100.9 in October, versus a 6-year low of 85.7 in April. All of the available confidence measures were oscillating near historic highs before being crushed by COVID-19, and throughout the Q2 drop-backs and ensuing bounce, it’s remarkable how firm the consumer measures have stayed relative to prior recessions.

Wednesday – 25 November 2020

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• Initial Jobless Claims (USD, GMT 13:30) – Last week there were better than expected numbers as 31k jobless claims gained to 742k in the week ended November 14 following the -46k drop to 711k in the prior week.
• Gross Domestic Product (USD, GMT 13:30) – The economy’s most important figure, Q3 GDP growth expected to rise to 33.2% from 33.1%, with a $9 bln trimming in factory inventories. The revised Q3 figures should still show a quarter with dramatic rebounds for residential investment and equipment spending to notably robust levels, and out-sized Q2-Q3 gyration in both exports and imports that left big Q3 gains, and hefty recoveries in consumer spending.
• Personal Consumption Expenditure Prices (USD, GMT 13:30) – The Fed’s favourite inflation Index is expected to show a 0.1% rise headline for personal income in October after a 0.9% increase in September, alongside a 0.7% climb in consumption after a 1.4% bounce in September.
• Durable Goods (USD, GMT 13:30) – Durable Goods orders are expected to rise 1.5% in October with a 3.5% climb in transportation orders, after a 1.9% headline orders climb in September that included a 4.1% transportation orders gain.

Thursday – 26 November 2020

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• United States – Thanksgiving Day – US Markets closed
• ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts (EUR, GMT 12:30) – The ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts provide information with regards to the policymakers’ rationale behind their decisions. At the same time, the minutes from the last ECB meeting acknowledge that ECB remains on course to add additional stimulus, with ECB’s Lagarde effectively confirming last week that will keep financing conditions favourable and spreads narrow to allow governments to launch sizeable fiscal support.
• Tokyo Core CPI (JPY, 23:30) – Tokyo CPI is usually a good proxy for the Japanese economy’s overall inflation rate. In November, the CPI is expected to have stood at -0.6%, from -0.3% in October.

Friday – 27 November 2020

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• French CPI, GDP & Consumer Spending (EUR 07:45) – A dip for the French data dump is expected – GDP is likely to remain flat at 18.2%, Inflation at 0.0% but there could be some improvement in Consumer spending.