FX News Today
USD continues to bounce (Day 5), and Yields up significantly as virus worries escalate and political uncertainty swirls. Democrats lodge papers to impeach President Trump if the cabinet doesn’t act to remove him. Neither of which are likely to come to fruition but the symbolism is significant. Equities lower (TSLA -7.82% & TWTR -6.4%), Asian markets mixed (Japan flat). Bitcoin crashed 20% before recovering 50% of loss, Oil recovered & Gold remains pressured by strong Yields. Overnight – weak Japanese bank lending and the worst UK Retail Sales figures since 1995, +4.8% vs 5.9% & 7.7% in Dec.
USDIndex – 5th day higher from 33-mth low (89.15) and back over 90.00 but struggled over at 90.70 at 2-day high. Trades at 90.40 – PP 90.30 – S1 90.15, R1 90.65
EUR – 4th day lower – trades under 1.2200 (R1) – 1.2130 (S1) yesterday, for a 18-day low, back to 1.2160 now– PP – 1.2180. 3 Black Crows on Daily Chart completed.
JPY – 5th day higher but stalled ahead of 104.50 (R2) yesterday – Trades at 104.12 (PP), R1 104.30, S1 103.92
GBP – down to 1.3450 (S1) yesterday. Back over 1.3500 and over R1 at 1.3555. PP 1.3510, R2 & 200Hr MA 1.3585
AUD – Under 0.7700 yesterday to test 0.7660 – back to PP now 0.7725 – R1 0.7750, NZD – Down to 0.7150 yesterday – back to PP 0.7180, R1 0.7210 CAD – 1.2835 high yesterday – trades at 1.2745 (PP & 200MA) – R1 1.2800 CHF – Trades at 0.8900 – up from 3 yr lows on Wednesday at 0.8757. PP 0.8850
BTC – Major Volatility yesterday – plunged 20%+ to $29,800. Retraced over 50% of fall – Back to around $36,400.
GOLD – Tested 1820 as Yields rose – Trades at 1858 now, PP 1840 USOil – $52.70 high Friday – trades at $51.60 (R1) now – still elevated, after dip to $51.50.
USA500 – Closed down 25 (-0.66%) 3799 – USA500 FUTS now at 3805. 47 days north of 20SMA (3735).
Today – US NFIB Business Optimism, EIA STEO, BoE’s Broadbent, Fed’s Brainard, Kaplan, Mester, Rosengren, ECB’s de Cos
Biggest (FX) Mover @ (07:30 GMT) NZDCHF (-0.40%) Bounced from 200MA on open. Breached PP (0.6384) earlier and tested R1 (0.6400). Fast MAs aligned and trending higher, RSI 57 and rising, MACD histogram & signal line aligned higher but remains south of 0 line this morning, Stochastics rising to OB. H1 ATR 0.0007, Daily ATR 0.0050.
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Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
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