Events to Look Out for Next Week

• Manufacturing PMI (CNY, GMT 01:00 Sunday) – The Manufacturing PMI is expected to slow down to 52.6 from 55.7 in January.
• Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (EUR, GMT 13:00) – The prelim. German HICP inflation for February is anticipated to decline to 0.5% y/y from 1.6% y/y.
• ISM Manufacturing PMI (USD, GMT 15:00) – The ISM index is expected to hold steady from 58.7 in January, down from a 2-year high of 60.7 in December, versus an 11-year low of 41.5 in April, a 14-year high of 60.8 in August of 2018, and a low of 34.5 from the last recession in December of 2008.

Tuesday – 2 March 2021

• RBA Rate Statement & Interest Rate (AUD, GMT 03:30) – After leaving interest rates unchanged in February, the RBA unexpectedly extended its QE program following its February board meeting. The RBA decided to purchase an additional AUD 100 bln of bonds issued by the government, states and territories “when the current bond purchase program is completed in mid April”. The central scenario is for the Australian economy to expand 3 1/2 percent this year as well as “return to its end-2019 level by the middle of this year”. Spare capacity is likely to stay for some time. Inflation and wages growth are expected to pick up from weak levels, but to remain “below 2% over the next couple of years”.
• Retail Sales (EUR, GMT 07:00) – German Retail Sales should jump to 5.0% y/y from 1.5% y/y in January, with a decline on a monthly basis to -2.6% m/m from 9.6% m/m.
• Consumer Price Index (EUR, GMT 10:00) – The Euro Area preliminary core CPI for February is forecasted to grow by 1.1% y/y from 1.4% y/y.
• Gross Domestic Product (CAD, GMT 13:30) – Canadian GDP for Q4 is expected to be confirmed at 47.6% q/q while December’s reading is seen lower at 0.4% m/m from 0.7% m/m.

Wednesday – 3 March 2021

• Gross Domestic Product (AUD, GMT 00:30) – Australian GDP for Q4 should rise to 2.5% on a quarterly basis however the overall release should contract to -1.8% y/y from -3.8% y/y.
• ADP Employment Change (USD, GMT 13:15) – Employment change is seen spiking to 125k in the number of employed people in February, compared to the 174K reading seen last month.
• ISM Services PMI (USD, GMT 15:00) – The ISM-NMI index should slip to 58.5 from 58.7 in January, versus a 17-month high of 58.1 in July, an 11-year low of 41.8 in April, a 13-year high of 61.2 in September of 2018, and an all-time low of 37.8 in November of 2008. Producer sentiment has remained firm into 2021 as businesses scramble to rebuild inventories, with an added lift into 2021 from stimulus distributions and expanding vaccine availability as holiday coronavirus restrictions are eased.

Thursday – 4 March 2021

• Retail Sales & Trade Balance (AUD, GMT 00:30) – Retail Sales s.a. should grow to 0.3% m/m in January. The trade balance is expected to turn out lower in January, to 6.5 bln from the surplus of 6.785 bln in December.
• Retail Sales (EUR, GMT 10:00) – Eurozone Retail Sales should slow down to -1.1% m/m from 2% m/m, leaving the overall reading at 0.3% y/y from 0.6% y/y.
• Jobless Claims (USD, GMT 13:30) – The US initial jobless claims plunged -111k to 730k in the week of February 20 after a -7k dip to 841k previously. The drop was well in excess of the measured decline that the market was expecting, with a jump anticipated due to the storms and the President’s Day holiday dislocations.
• Fed’s Chairman Powell speech (USD, GMT 17:05)

Friday – 5 March 2021

• NFP and Labour Market Data (USD, GMT 13:30) – A 350k February nonfarm payroll increase is anticipated, after a 49k increase in January, but a -227k decline in December. The breakdown of this release could show a 25k factory jobs increase in February, after a -10k January drop, and a jobless rate that sustains the January plunge to 6.3% from 6.7% in December. Hours-worked are assumed to be flat after a 0.9% January bounce, with the workweek slipping to 34.9 from 35.0 in January. Average hourly earnings are assumed to rise just 0.1% in February, as we further unwind the December distortion that left a 1.0% earnings surge with a big drop in low-wage workers. The y/y wage gain should slip to 5.2% from 5.4%. We previously saw a 3.5% expansion-high pace for y/y wage gains in both February and July of 2019, before the pandemic boost to an 8.0% April peak. We expect the payroll rebound to gain steam in 2021 following the winter lull, thanks to stimulus deposits and vaccines.