Events to Look Out for Next Week

• Retail Trade (JPY, GMT 23:50) – Japanese Retail Trade is expected to have contracted further by -2.6% y/y in February, compared to -2.4% in January.

Tuesday – 30 March 2021

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• Consumer Confidence (EUR, GMT 09:00) – The Euro Area consumer confidence for March is forecasted to decline at -14.8 from -10.8 last month. All major sub-indices remain in negative territory, suggesting that pessimists continue to outnumber optimists.
• Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (EUR, GMT 12:00) – The German HICP preliminary inflation for March is anticipated to remain constant at 1.6% y/y.
• Consumer Confidence (USD, GMT 14:00) – The Consumer Confidence is expected to rise to 96.0 from 91.3 in February, versus a 6-year low of 85.7 in April of 2020. All the confidence measures are climbing into late-Q1 with vaccine distributions, stimulus deposits, and the easing of coronavirus restrictions, following a slight downward tilt through the holidays.

Wednesday – 31 March 2021

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• Manufacturing PMI (CNY, GMT 01:00) – The NBS Manufacturing PMI is expected to slightly incline to 51.1 in March from 50.6.
• Gross Domestic Product (GBP, GMT 06:00) – GDP is the economy’s most important figure. Q4’s GDP is expected to be unchanged at 1% q/q and -7.8% y/y.
• Consumer Price Index (EUR, GMT 09:00) –  The prelim. Eurozone inflation and core should flatten at 0.9% y/y and 1.1% y/y respectively in March.
• ADP Employment Change (USD, GMT 12:15) – The ADP Employment survey is seen at 403k for March compared to the 117k in February.
• Gross Domestic Product (CAD, GMT 12:30) – Canada GDP results for January are seen to be rising, at a monthly rate of 0.3% compared to 0.1% last month.
• President Biden Speech (USD, GMT N/A)

Thursday – 01 April 2021

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• Retail Sales (AUD, GMT 00:30) – February’s Retail sales could be improved by 0.6% m/m, following a -1.1% January loss.
• Retail Sales (EUR, GMT 06:00) – German Retail Sales should jump 1.3% y/y after contracting by -8.7% y/y in January.
• ISM Manufacturing PMI (USD, GMT 14:00) – The ISM index is expected to ease to 60.0 from a 2-year high of 60.8 in February, versus an 11-year low of 41.5 in April last year. The all-time low for the measure is 30.3 in June of 1980. Producer sentiment has remained firm into 2021 as businesses scramble to rebuild inventories, with an added lift into March from expanding vaccine availability and two rounds of stimulus distributions in January and March.

Friday – 02 April 2021

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• Event of the Week – Non-Farm Payrolls (USD, GMT 12:30) – A 500k March nonfarm payroll increase is anticipated, after gains of 379k in February and 166k in January. Hours-worked are assumed to rebound 1.0% after a -0.5% February dip, with a workweek rise to 34.8 from a weather-depressed 34.6 in February. Average hourly earnings are assumed to rise just 0.1% in March, as we further unwind the December distortion that left a 1.0% earnings surge with a big drop in low-wage workers. The y/y wage gain should slip to 4.5% from 5.3% due mostly to an easier comparison. We expect the payroll rebound to gain steam in 2021 following the winter lull, thanks to stimulus deposits and vaccines.