Market News Today – Quiet today but US is back later – Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, China & Hong Kong closed in Asia, most of Europe, Canada & Latin America all closed. FX markets range bound but USD holds gains after blockbuster NFP data (916k headline, 156k additional jobs in last 2 months), expectations for upward revisions for other March data and Q1 GDP now 4.6% from 4.3%. Nikkei225 closed up 0.8%.
Week Ahead – RBA (6th) EU PMIs & FOMC Minutes (7th), ECB Minutes, Weekly Claims & Powell speech (8th), CAD Jobs & US PPI (9th).
FOMC minutes and Fedspeak will be highlights in the coming week now that the jobs data is safely and bullishly out of the way. Despite the good news from the payroll report and other recent data, expectations remain that the Fed is unlikely to change its tune on the lower-for-longer policy stance and its commitment to accommodation. The FOMC minutes will be old news, though they will be scrutinized for more information on the dots that showed four members plugging in rate hikes for next year. Fed Chair Powell’s comments from an IMF panel discussion on the global economy (Thursday) will take centre stage. He’s been the most adamant in supporting the dovish stance. Also speaking this week will be voters Bostic, Evans, and Barkin, along with Kaplan and Bullard.
Today – ISM Services PMI (USD, GMT 14:00) – The ISM-NMI index should rise to 57.5 from 55.3 in February.
Biggest (FX) Mover @ (07:30 GMT) GBPNZD (+0.24%) rallied from 200MA on open, over 50 MA and R1 (1.9688) now. Upper BB 1.9720. Faster MAs remain aligned higher, RSI 69 and rising to test OB zone, MACD histogram & signal line aligned higher but under 0 line. Stochs rising. H1 ATR 0.0024, Daily ATR 0.0144.
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Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
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