Events to Look Out for Next Week

• Retail Sales (AUD, GMT 01:30) – Following the unexpected bounce in the preliminary release, the final March retail sales is expected to hold at 1.4% m/m.

Tuesday – 11 May 2021

• Consumer Price Index (CNY, GMT 01:30) – The Chinese CPI for April is forecasted to grow by 1.0% y/y but to contract to -0.2% m/m.
• Economic Sentiment (EUR, GMT 09:00) – German March ZEW economic sentiment is expected to have inclined to 79.0 compared to 70.7 in April.
• BoE’s Governor Bailey speech (GBP, GMT 14:30)

Wednesday – 12 May 2021

• Gross Domestic Product (GBP, GMT 06:00) – Final UK GDP numbers for Q4 last year brought an unexpected upward revision to 1.3% q/q from 1.1% q/q reported initially. So even if the strict lockdown through much of the first quarter brought a renewed contraction, the trajectory for this year will be higher, and unlike the Eurozone, the UK will escape a technical recession over the Q4/Q1 period. It will be interesting to see though, how much of the boost in Q4 was due to stock-building ahead of Brexit – on both sides of the channel – and how the changes to the trade relationship with the EU will impact the longer term outlook. Meanwhile, the preliminary numbers for Q1 should come at  0.5% q/q.
• Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (EUR, GMT 06:00) – The final German HICP inflation for April is anticipated to decline slightly to 2.0% y/y from 2.1% y/y.
• BoE’s Governor Bailey speech (GBP, GMT 09:00)
• Consumer Price Index (USD, GMT 12:30) – US April inflation data is anticipated at 0.2% for the headline and 0.2% for the core, following a 0.6% gain for the headline and 0.3% for the core in March. CPI gasoline prices look poised to ease -1.7% in April. As-expected April figures would result in a 3.5% headline y/y increase, following a 2.6% pace in March. Core prices should show a 2.3% y/y rise, up from 1.6% y/y in March.

Thursday – 13 May 2021

• Producer Price Index (USD, GMT 12:30) – The final PPI for April should see a 0.2% April PPI headline rise with a 0.2% core price gain, following respective gains of 1.0% and 0.7% in March, and a huge 1.3% and 1.2% in January. As-expected readings would result in a rise for the y/y headline PPI. The y/y headline PPI reading should climb to a peak to the 5.7% area in April due to hard comparisons, while the core y/y rate rises to a peak near 3.8% around May. The massive PPI climb through Q1 sharply exceeded the uptrend in headline and core CPI data, with bigger boosts from surging commodity and trade prices alongside ongoing supply constraints likely to lift the inflation indexes throughout 2021.
• BoC’s Governor Macklem speech (CAD, GMT 15:00)
• BoE’s Governor Bailey speech (GBP, GMT 16:00)

Friday – 14 May 2021

• Retail Sales (USD, GMT 12:30) – April retail sales headline is anticipated flat, with a flat ex-auto figure as well, following huge respective March pops of 9.8% and 8.4% that were lifted by stimulus checks, as well as a reversal of February weakness attributable to the Texas freeze and bad weather across the midwest and east coast. We expect continued strength in non-store sales, and a continuation of the rebound for sales of clothing, furniture, electronics, and appliances as we continue to reverse last year’s pandemic hit. Real consumer spending is expected to grow at rates of 10.5% in Q2 after 10.7% in Q1, and a 2.3% clip in Q4.
• Michigan Sentiment (USD, GMT 14:00) – The preliminary US consumer sentiment for May is forecast at 91.00, 2.7 points above the final in April.