Market News Today – Equities rebound (USA100 +0.79% to new ATH) & USD slips again (USDIndex 91.80). Catalyst was Powell comments “inflation alone would not be enough to prompt rate rises” “we will wait for evidence of actual inflation or other imbalances.” Asian markets also recovered, AUD & JPY PMIs missed expectations. US 10 yr yields fell as USD cooled bounce again too; 1.47%. EUR holds over 1.1900 at 1.1925, JPY up again to 110.80 & Cable (5 years since Brexit vote today) up to 1.3945. Gold rotates at $1780, USOil down from Monday’s spike to $73.80 but holds over $72.00 as $100 Brent gossip swirls¹ & OPEC tests the waters on production increases.
CB-Speak Daly said bank was right to talk about slowing the pace of asset purchases, but economy is “not yet here” for such a decision, & even talk of changing rates is not on the table. Officials are looking to Fall data to get more clarity on the status of the economy & its developments. Inflation could approach 3% in the near future & the data is expected to remain volatile. Mester – inflation expectations have risen, but it has not yet reached an alarming level – it will hit between 3% to 3.5%, but after that it will drop to the Fed’s 2% year-over-year target. A better picture of the labor force will be seen in September, after schools reopen & increased unemployment benefits end.
European Open – The September 10-year Bund future is slightly higher, as are US futures. DAX and FTSE 100 futures are down -0.019% and -0.050% respectively, while US futures are fractionally higher, after Fed Chairman Powell managed to sooth nerves yesterday with calming words on the rate outlook and by reiterating that inflation pressures will be transitory.
Today – EZ, UK and US PMIs (Flash), ECB’s Lagarde, de Guindos; Fed’s Bowman, Bostic, Rosengren, and supply from Germany and the US.
Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) GBPNZD (+0.29%) First down day in 9 yesterday to close at 1.9845. Rallied on open over PP and 50Hr MA (1.9985) to 1.9900. Next resistance R1 1.9931. Faster MAs aligned higher, RSI 55 but neutral, MACD signal line and histogram rising weakly & remain below 0 line. Stochs declined from OB & now neutral. H1 ATR 0.0023 Daily ATR 0.0122.
¹https://www.forexlive.com/news/!/6-reasons-oil-will-spike-above-100-20210623
Click here to access our Economic Calendar
Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
