Jitters over the rapid spread of the more infectious Delta variant seem to be receding and Treasury yields have moved higher overnight, as equity markets across the Asia-Pacific region gained after US shares touched record highs yesterday, but pared gains into the close.
Hopes that vaccines will be effective mean investors are sticking with the recovery story after strong US data yesterday boosted economic optimism.
JPN225 is currently down by 0.13%, with a disappointing contraction in industrial production weighing on sentiment. China official PMI readings also eased, however, the slowing in the pace of expansion is not a surprise given supply chain disruptions around the world, though the data continued to suggest China’s recovery remains on pace. Cyclicals rallied, while Bank stocks were mostly higher following announced dividend increases and stock buybacks. Improved consumer confidence and a year over year surge in home prices supported equities at the margins. Wall Street closed slightly higher yesterday, with indexes touching new highs. GER30 and UK100 futures are also fractionally higher.
UK Q1 GDP revised down to -1.6% q/q in the final reading, from -1.5% q/q previously. The annual rate was confirmed at -6.1% y/y. Private consumption corrected -4.6% q/q, reflecting mainly the impact of a relatively strict lockdown that quarter. Government spending rose 1.5% q/q, while exports slumped -6.1% and imports -13.5%. Investment contracted less than initially feared, but was still down -1.7% q/q, although at this point and with the economy heading for a full re-opening in July and already pretty much on track for a strong rebound thanks to vaccination programs, the Q1 number doesn’t really change the overall picture or outlook.
Forex Market: USDJPY is at 110.46, after the Dollar firmed on haven demand. The Australian and NZ Dollars are under pressure so far, USDJPY has steadied above 110.40 while the EUR steadied above 1.1890. The Pound declined to 1.3810 lows and is currently settled at the 1.3850 area. USOIL meanwhile lifted to USD 73.42 per barrel after an industry report showed US crude stockpiles fell last week, overriding trader and investor concerns about transportation curbs in some countries as COVID-19 cases surge. Gold is down 7.8% so far this month, and heading for its worst monthly drop since November 2016.
Today’s Calendar – Markets are also keeping a close eye on signals from central banks and in particular the Fed, after strong consumer confidence readings out of the US yesterday. Today’s calendar focuses on German jobless numbers and of course the preliminary reading for Eurozone June HICP, Canadian GDP and US ADP employment change.
Significant FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) GBPUSD retests the 1,3800 area for a 2nd day in a row wıth faster MAs bullishly crossed and RSI at 37 and pointing lower. MACD signal line and histogram are negatively configured, while Stochastic turned below OS barrier, all suggesting that the short term decline continues.
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Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
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