The Dollar holds on to gains, Equities hit new all-time highs, and gold slipped again. Still to come this week is more PMI data, more central bank speeches, the OPEC meeting and to top it all the key NFP data on Friday.
Jobs, Earnings and Unemployment remain very much in focus. The weekly US unemployment claims missed expectations yet again last week, coming in at 411,000, a 30,000 jump higher, with 388,000 expected this week. Headline NFP is expected at 700,000 with dips for the Unemployment rate but also for Earnings.
The vaccine rollouts continue to drive sentiment, but the virus variants remain a significant concern and evidence of 3rd or 4th waves is growing. Extended restrictions are in place across many Asian countries and over 11 million Australians are now in lockdown again. Over 3 billion doses of vaccines have been administered globally but many low-income countries have less than 5% vaccination rates.
This week FX volatility was evident again but less than last week. The USDIndex tested 91.50 before moving over 92.00 again ahead of month end and NFP. EURUSD spiked to 1.1965 but slipped below 1.1900, June highs were at 1.2250. USDJPY could not hold the breach of 111.00, declining under 110.50, while Cable spiked to 1.4000 ahead of the BOE but has since slipped under 1.3850 and even re-tested the 1.3800 zone.
Global stock markets pushed higher to post more new all-time highs. The tech and cyclical stocks led the latest move higher, with industrials lagging. The USA500 and USA100 rallied to highs at 4,300 and 14,609 respectively, whilst the USA30 topped at 34,526.
The Gold price slipped again this week, following dollar and equity gains, and traded as low as $1750. The key precious metal opened trading in June at $1915, but the decline this month has wiped out all the gains in May and threatens to test the 1st quarter low under $1700.
USOil prices continue to rally, but this week spiked lower before recovering ahead of the OPEC meeting. This week prices topped at $73.70, 20 cents shy of recent highs, but still hold north of $73.00 ahead of expected OPEC production increases to be announced on Thursday.
The yield on the US 10-Year Treasury Note, very much in focus last week, spiked to 1.545%, then slipped to 1.47% lows before settling around 1.48% but remaining anchored under the key support level at 1.60%.
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Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
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