Events to Look Out for Next Week

• Consumer Price Index (CNY, GMT 01:30) – China’s recovery appears to be broadening, as a key manufacturing sentiment measure improves. CPI is expected to accelerate to a 0.2% in July following the -0.4% contraction last month.Overall, the recent data reflect the slowing in activity in China, likely a function of the spreading virus cases and the impacts of supply constraints
• JOLTS Job Openings (USD, GMT 14:00) – JOLTS define Job Openings as all positions that have not been filled on the last business day of the month. June’s JOLTS job openings is expected to rise at 9.388M, following the 9.209M in May.

Tuesday – 10 August 2021

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• Economic Sentiment (EUR, GMT 09:00) – German August ZEW economic sentiment is expected to have decline to 58.0 compared to 63.3 in July.

Wednesday – 11 August  2021

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• Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (EUR, GMT 06:00) – The final German HICP inflation for July is anticipated to rise to 0.9% m/m from 0.4% m/m.
• Consumer Price Index (USD, GMT 12:30) – US July inflation data is anticipated at 0.3% for both the CPI headline and core, following June gains of 0.9% for both. CPI gasoline prices look poised to rise 2.3% in July. As-expected July figures would result in a 5.1% headline y/y increase, following a 5.4% pace in June. Core prices should show a 4.2% y/y rise, down from 4.5% y/y in June.
• EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change (USOIL, GMT 14:30)

Thursday – 12 August 2021

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• Q2 Gross Domestic Product (GBP, GMT 06:00) – Final UK GDP numbers for Q1 GDP was revised down to -1.6% q/q in the final reading, from -1.5% q/q previously. The annual rate was confirmed at -6.1% y/y. Private consumption corrected -4.6% q/q, reflecting mainly the impact of a relatively strict lockdown that quarter. Government spending rose 1.5% q/q, while exports slumped -6.1% and imports -13.5%. Investment contracted less than intially feared, but was still down -1.7% q/q, although at this point and with the economy heading for a full re-opening in July and already pretty much on track for a strong rebound thanks to vaccination programs, the Q1 number doesn’t really change the overlall picture or outlook. UK GDP numbers for Q2 GDP is expected to expand further to 4.2% q/q and 22.2% y/y.
• Industrial and Manufacturing Production (GBP, GMT 06:00) – Industrial Production is expected to remain unchanged  while the Manufacturing production is forecasted at 1.0% June from -0.1% in May.
• Producer Price Index (USD, GMT 12:30) – The PPI for July should see a 0.3% gains for the headline and core, following gains of 1.0% for both in June. As expected readings would result in a dip for the y/y headline PPI metric to 6.9% from 7.3% in June, though we expect a dip in the y/y core measure to 5.4% from 5.6% in June. The y/y headline PPI gain of 7.3% in June, as well as the core y/y gain of 5.6%, likely represented the peak for this metric. The massive PPI climb since the start of 2021 has exceeded the uptrend in headline and core CPI data, and both sets of gains are chasing outsized increases in the trade price measures, alongside ongoing supply constraints that have provided a powerful lift for the inflation indexes.

Friday – 13 August 2021

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• Michigan Index (USD, GMT 14:00) – We expect the August prelim. Michigan sentiment report  expected to improve to a 85.0  from 81.2 in the final July print.