Events to Look Out for Next Week

Tuesday – 14 September 2021

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• Average Earnings Index & ILO rate (GBP, GMT 06:00) – UK Earnings with the bonus-included figure are expected to slow down to 8.6% y/y in the three months to July. UK ILO unemployment is expected higher at 4.8% in the three months to July.
• Consumer Price Index (USD, GMT 12:30) – August gains are anticipated at 0.4% for the CPI headline and 0.2% for the core, following July gains of 0.5% for the headline and 0.3% for the core. CPI gasoline prices look poised to rise 2.8% in August. As-expected August figures would result in a 5.3% headline y/y increase, following a 5.4% pace in July and June. Core prices should show a 4.1% y/y rise, down from 4.3% y/y in July. Widespread production bottlenecks are lifting all the broad inflation metrics in 2021, such as PPI and the trade price indexes, alongside a Q2 boost to the y/y figures from base effects that should allow peak-gains over the May-July period for the headline and core.

Wednesday – 15 September 2021

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• Retail Sales & Industrial Production (CNY, GMT 02:00) – Chinese Retail Sales are expected to rise to 11.5% y/y from 8.5% y/y last month and Industrial production is expected to grow by 5.8% in August from 6.4% in July.
• PPI and Consumer Price Index (GBP, GMT 06:00) – More UK data, with Inflation from producer and consumer spending both expected to show a decline for August, however inflation on the annualized basis shows that growth should come at 2.9% y/y.
• Consumer Price Index and Core (CAD, GMT 12:30) – Canada’s CPI should show a moderation to a 0.3% pace in August from the 0.6% growth rate in July, which was the fastest pace since January 2021. Canada’s CPI rose to a 3.7% y/y pace in July from the 3.1% rate (y/y, nsa) in June. That matches the fastest clip since May 2011, which was the highest since March 2003’s 4.2% y/y. It is also above the BoC’s 1% y/y to 3% y/y target range. The BoC has said it views the inflation spike as temporary, citing base effects among the reasons — hence the Bank should take this report in stride.
• Crude Oil Inventories (USOIL, GMT 14:30)
• Gross Domestic Product (NZD, GMT 22:45) – The New Zealand Q2 GDP is anticipated to show a growth to 1.5% q/q from 1.6% q/q in Q1.

Thursday – 16 September 2021

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• Employment and Unemployment Rate (AUD, GMT 01:30) – The Australian jobs market is expected to show a mixed employment report, with employment change at -70k, a contraction from the 2.2K growth last month, but unemployment ticking up to 4.9% for August from 4.6% last month.
• Retail Sales and Philly Fed (USD, GMT 12:30) – August Retail sales are anticipated at a -0.9% headline drop with a -0.1% ex-auto decline, following respective July decreases of -1.1% and -0.4%, as the March pop from stimulus checks continues to unwind.

Friday – 17 September 2021

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• UK Retail Sales (GBP, GMT 06:00) – Expectations are for the headline number to be 5.7% on a y/y basis, up from 1.8%, last time, and the m/m data for August to show growth at 0.5% from the -2.5% last  time.
• Consumer Price Index and Core (EUR, GMT 09:00) –  On the inflation front, the core reading was at just 0.7% y/y, unchanged from the preliminary result and confirming that much of the annual rate is due to base effects, particularly from energy prices, which were up 14.3% y/y in July – a further acceleration from the 12.6% y/y rate in June. Services price inflation lifted to 0.9% y/y, which is actually quite low considering the re-opening of the hospitality sector, although restrictions were also pretty lax over the summer last year. Looking ahead, base effects and special factors, such as Germany’s temporary VAT cut last year, should see headline rates lifting further, especially in Germany. The ECB, like other central banks, has made it very clear, however, that it will see through any temporary inflation overshoot. Ultimately, the question is how the labour market will develop once government support is phased out, and against that background officials remain cautious.