- OPEC Meetings – 21st OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Meeting (ONOMM) planned for Monday, 4 October 2021, via videoconference to examine oil market developments.
Tuesday – 05 October 2021
- Interest rate Decision and Statement (AUD, GMT 04:30) – The Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to keep its cash rate unchanged. The central bank head pushed in September back against rate hike speculation, said in the text of a speech that he finds it “difficult to understand why rate rises are being priced in next year or early 2023”. Like other central banks, the RBA seems eager to separate the QE outlook from rates, and given that the recovery has been delayed, they considered it appropriate to delay any consideration of a further taper in their bond purchases until next year.
- Composite Markit PMIs (EUR, GMT 07:55-08:00) – Eurozone’s & Germany’s Composite September PMIs are expected to have increased, given a rise in the Services sector, leaving the composite at 59.7 from 56.3 and 61.5 from 56.0 respectively.
- Composite Markit PMIs (GBP, GMT 08:00) – September ‘s Services PMIs in UK are expected to have slightly improved, leaving the composite at 55.3, up from 54.1 in the preliminary release for September.
- ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (USD, GMT 15:00) –The ISM-NMI index is expected to fall to a still-robust 61.0 from 61.7 in August and a 64.1 all-time high in July. Producer sentiment is unwinding the lofty peaks over the March-May period as the lift from stimulus wanes and headwinds from the delta variant kick-in, though levels remain robust, and the early sentiment indicators for September rebounded sharply. All the sentiment indicators declined on net through July-August from prior peaks, and expected further declines into late -2021 toward more historically typical levels.
Wednesday – 06 October 2021
- Interest Rate Decision and Statement (NZD, GMT 01:00) – The RBNZ is expected to hike rates to 0.50% from 0.25%. The Bank surprised markets by leaving rates unchanged at its last meeting.
- Retail Sales (EUR, GMT 09:00) – Retail Sales should contract to -3.4% m/m in December, leaving the headline at 0.8% y/y.
- ADP Employment Change (USD, GMT 12:15) – Employment change is seen spiking to 475k in the number of employed people in September, compared to the 374k reading seen last month.
Thursday – 07 October 2021
- China – National Day
- Jobless Claims (USD, GMT 12:30) – The US initial jobless claims are expected to fall -21k to 330k after a climb to 351k in the BLS survey week from 335k prior to that, leaving the measure well above the 312k cycle-low in the week of September 4. The bulk of last week’s spike was in California, while the boost from hurricane Ida unwound given the pullback for claims in Louisiana. Claims are poised to average 332k in September, after 352k in August, 394k in July, and 394k in June.
- Ivey PMI (CAD, GMT 14:00) – A survey of purchasing managers, the Index provides an overview of the state of business conditions in the country.
Friday – 08 October 2021
- Event of the Week – Non-Farm Payrolls (USD, GMT 12:30) – A 475k September nonfarm payroll increase is anticipated, after gains of 235k in August, 1,053k in July, and 963k in June. The jobless rate should drop to 5.0% from 5.2% in August and 5.4% in July. Hours-worked are assumed to rise 0.6%, after the 0.2% August increase, while the workweek holds at 34.7 for a third month. Average hourly earnings are assumed to rise 0.3% after gains of 0.6% in August and 0.4% in July, while the y/y wage gain should tick up to 4.4% from 4.3%.
- Labour Market Data (CAD, GMT 12:30) – Canada employment jumped 90.2k in August, besting expectations, after the 94.0k pop in June. It’s a third straight monthly gain, though not as robust as the surprising 230.7 jump in June. The unemployment rate fell to 7.1% from 7.5% and is down from 9.4% at the start of the year.
- Treasury Currency Report (USA, GMT N/A) – Twice a year – It provides a detailed review of global exchange rate policies, economic conditions, and central bank and government actions around the world. Most importantly, the report outlines countries that the Treasury deems currency manipulators.
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Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
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