The markets are likely to meander into the weekend. Liquidity is drying up ahead of the upcoming Thanksgiving holiday and that could add some volatility to already choppy action. Concerns over inflation and the FOMC’s response continue to impact Treasuries. Wall Street has been up and down with one eye on the action in Treasuries, and the other on earnings/guidance. The economic agenda ahead is expected to be a busy one, as it includes RBNZ and PBoC rate decisions and lots of central banks officials’ speeches. Data however will also dominate volatility as the week includes leading indicators such as PMIs, GDP and Retail Sales from the largest economies in the world.
Monday – 22 November 2021
PBoC Interest Rate Decision (CNY, GMT 01:30) – The People’s Bank of China boosted short term liquidity, but held the loan prime rate steady so far and set a weaker than expected yuan reference rate. According to a Reuters survey, China is set to keep its benchmark lending rate steady at its monthly fixing on Monday, as policymakers seek to limit risk taking in the property sector.Retail Sales (NZD, GMT 21:45) – Retail Sales are seen to be confirmed at 3.3% q/q for Q3.
Tuesday – 23 November 2021
Japan – Public Holiday Markit PMIs (GBP, GMT 08:30) – October‘s Services PMIs and Manufacturing PMIs in the UK are expected unchanged at 54.6 and 56.3 respectively.Markit PMIs (EUR, GMT 08:30-09:00) – The Eurozone’s & Germany’s Composite November PMIs are expected to have declined, given a fall in both Services and Manufacturing sectors, leaving the composite at 53.3 from 54.2 for the Eurozone.Manufacturing PMI (USD, GMT 14:45) – The preliminary Manufacturing PMI for November is expected to rise to 60.3 from 58.4 while Services PMI is expected to fall to 55.1 from 58.7 last month.
Wednesday – 24 November 2021
Interest Rate Decision and Statement and Press Conference (NZD, GMT 01:00 & 02:00) IFO Business Climate, Assessment & Expectations (EUR, GMT 09:00) – The German IFO business reading is expected to decline slightly to 96.8 in November from 97.7.Gross Domestic Product (USD, GMT 13:30) – A slight boost is seen in Q3 GDP growth to 2.5% from 2.0%. Severe supply chain and port bottleneck disruptions account for the big Q3 net export subtraction alongside the big inventory liquidation for a 3rd consecutive quarter, and for 5 of the last 7 quarters. The sharp Q3 consumption slowdown reflected the unwinding of early-2021 stimulus spending, though we also saw a big Q3 sales hit from vehicle shortages. We saw a Q3 business fixed investment pullback and another residential investment drop, before a likely winter bounce due to diminished seasonality for the industry. Trade remains depressed by limited international travel, which may recover somewhat into year-end.Durable Goods (USD, GMT 13:30) – Durable goods orders are expected to grow 0.4% in October with a 0.5% transportation orders rise, after a -0.3% headline dip in September that included a -2.3% transportation orders drop.Personal Income/Consumption (USD, GMT 15:00) – A 0.4% rise is anticipated for October personal income after a -1.0% September drop. We expect a 0.5% rise in compensation after a 0.7% September gain. We expect a 0.4% rise in “current transfer receipts” after a -7.0% September plunge with the expiration of extended jobless benefits.Crude Oil Inventories (GMT 14:30 ) FOMC Meeting Minutes (USD, GMT 19:00) –
Thursday – 25 November 2021
United States – Thanksgiving Day Gross Domestic Product (EUR, GMT 07:00) – German Q3 GDP is expected to slow down on a quarterly basis however the headline is seen at 9.6% y/y.ECB Lagarde speech (EUR, GMT 13:30) BoE Governor Bailey speech (EUR, GMT 17:00)
Friday – 26 November 2021
United States – Thanksgiving Day – Early close at 13:00 Gross Domestic Product (CHF, GMT 08:00) – Swiss Q3 GDP is expected to rise on a quarterly basis to 2% from 1.8% and headline at 9.0% y/y from 7.7% y/y.ECB Lagarde speech (EUR, GMT 08:00)
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Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
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