Welcome to 2022, Evergrande back in the headlines, having defaulted, shares have been suspended, (they fell 90% in 2021) awaiting “inside information”. TESLA beat delivery targets & more woes for TRY as Turkish inflation hits 19-yr highs.
The 2021 close – S&P500 +27%, USDIndex +6.3%, 10-yr yields broke 1.5%, Oil & Gas 50% & 48% respectively, Coffee was the best performing commodity (+70%), Gold lost –4%. European Banks gained +34%, US Treasuries lost -3%, Chinese Tech & Property sector collapsed. Inflation (US 6.8% EZ 4.9%, UK 5.1% & Japan 0.1%), Energy & Food costs rallied. Cryptos volatile & surged (BTC +60%), Meme Stocks monstrously volatile (GameStop +700% – as high as +2,500%) & AMC +1200% (up 3200% at one point). NFT’s arrived (Market Cap 2021 – $22Billion+ vs. just $100 million in 2020)
- USD (USDIndex 95.90) recovered from 2021 close at 95.50 zone. US stocks dipped into year end, & Yields also slipped. USOil & Gold both held on to healthy gains.
- US Yields 10 yr traded to 1.51%
- Equities – USA500 -12.55 (-0.26%) at 4766 NASDAQ -0.61%,
- USOil – slipped from $76.00 but held onto $75.00 ahead of OPEC+ meeting tomorrow.
- Gold – spiked to $1831 on weaker USD, holds at 1825.
- Bitcoin down to 47k.
- FX markets – EURUSD 1.1340, USDJPY holds over 115.00, Cable holds over 1.3500.
European Open – The March 10-year Bund future is down -11 ticks, US futures are underperforming, while stock futures are higher in Europe and the US. Large parts of Asia were still on holiday today and in Europe, the U.K. remains shut for the extended New Year holiday. The calendar focuses on final manufacturing PMI readings for the Eurozone, which are not expected to bring major revisions and should confirm that virus developments have slowed the pace of expansion.
Today – Final EZ Manu PMI’s – UK, US & Canada remain closed for New-Year
Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) EURUSD (-0.43%) Correcting Friday’s rally to 1.1385, trades down to 1.1336 now. MAs aligned lower, MACD signal line & histogram lower but above 0 line. RSI 47 and falling, H1 ATR 0.00144 Daily ATR 0.0065.
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Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
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