Event of the Week – Non-Farm Payrolls (USD, GMT 12:30) –An 380k March nonfarm payroll increase is forecasted, after gains of 678k in February, 481k in January, and 588k in December. Payroll growth should slow gradually through 2022 with reduced growth in the economy. We expect the jobless rate to dip to 3.7% from 3.8% in February. Hours-worked are assumed to rise 0.3% after the 0.8% February increase. Average hourly earnings are assumed to rise 0.5%, after a flat figure in February. In the last expansion, we saw a 3.5% peak for y/y wage gains, in both February and July of 2019, before the pandemic-boost to an 8.0% peak in April of 2020, and the ensuing strength in wage gains that has allowed continued robust y/y increases into 2022.
ISM Manufacturing PMI (USD, GMT 14:00) – The ISM index is expected to fall to 57.8 from 58.6 in February, compared to an 18-year high of 63.7 in March, an 11-year low of 41.6 in April of 2020, and an all-time low of 30.3 in June of 1980.
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