Main Macro Events This Week
The aftermath of the mixed US July jobs report will be one of many factors resonating with the markets in the days ahead. There were some tall hurdles for investors to leap recently, including firm US Q2 GDP, FOMC, a $1 tln Apple market cap, and the solid underlying employment data, but none have derailed the economic outlook, which remains mostly positive.
In the meantime, trade and tariffs will continue to dominate the conversation after the US announced plans to raise levies from 10% to 25% on $200 bln of Chinese goods, while China prepped another $60 bln in tariffs. Attention will also remain on earnings, though the pace of their release will be slowing. And though the FOMC, ECB, BoE and BoJ are all out of the way for now, their range of gradualism remains impactful. In Australia-Asia, both the RBA and RBNZ are seen on hold, though the Philippines central bank may hike 50 bps to 4.00%.
United States: As for the US economic calendar, inflation statistics will be on tap and modest gains are expected in the monthly CPI and PPI readings in July, keeping the y/y readings above the Fed’s 2% target. As for the other data releases, the wholesale inventories are anticipated to be flat in June, but see a small gain for overall business inventories and a more moderate but still-strong increase in June consumer credit after a May surge.
Specifically, the week will kick off (Tuesday) with updates on JOLTS job openings and consumer credit is expected to rise $16.0 bln in June, following a $24.6 bln surge in May. The MBA mortgage market report will be updated (Wednesday), along with EIA energy inventories. Headline and core PPI are projected to rise 0.1% in July (Thursday), following a 0.3% increase in both measures in June, while initial jobless claims are estimated to fall 6k to 212k in the week ended August 4, following a 218k reading in the week of July 28. Also on tap (Thursday) is wholesale trade with inventories seen flat in June, as indicated in the advance report, following a 0.4% May gain, while sales are estimated to rise 0.8%, after a 2.5% surge in May. The week rounds out with a forecast of a 0.2% increase in the July headline CPI (Friday), following a benign 0.1% gain in June.
Canada: Canada’s bond and stock markets are closed Monday for the Civic Holiday with trading resuming Tuesday. The July employment report (Friday) is the star of the show this week. A 25.0k gain is expected in total jobs during July following the 31.8k gain in June. Total average hourly earnings are seen expanding at a 3.9% y/y rate, matching the 3.9% clip in June that was the fastest since 2009. There is a trifecta of housing data this week — June building permits (Wednesday), June new home price index (Thursday) and July housing starts (Thursday). The July Ivey PMI is due Tuesday.
Europe: ECB is effectively on holiday with no speeches scheduled this week and the next council meeting still more than a month away (September 13). Against that background, the release of the ECB’s latest economic bulletin (Thursday) is unlikely to rock the boat.
There are plenty of data releases, although most of them second tier, and even the once so-important German manufacturing orders numbers (Monday) no longer have quite the market impact they used to have. The German industrial production data for June (Tuesday) are seen falling -0.6% m/m. More signs then that growth momentum is slowing down, which already has been evident in survey data. At the same time, the German sa trade surplus (Tuesday) is expected to fall back slightly to EUR 20.0 bln with the June numbers from EUR 20.3 bln in May. Even if exports decline as expected, that alone is unlikely to quell criticism that Germany’s economy remains too export oriented and the current account surplus too large. It will, however, add to concerns that the global tide toward protectionism is leaving its mark on the German and Eurozone economies. The data calendar also includes French and Italian production numbers as well as Italian trade, and inflation data from Portugal, Ireland and Greece.
UK: BoE last week delivered its second 25 bp rate hike of what can be best described as a hyper-gradual tightening cycle. And while signalling that the bias remains for higher rates, it also left markets in little doubt that policy will remain on hold until after the legal Brexit date, of March 29 next year. BoE will remain a little quiet on the Brexit front due to the summer lull in London and Brussels, though negotiations will be continuing from mid August. The calendar this week features the July BRC retail sales report (Tuesday) along with the Q2 GDP, June production, and June trade data (which are all due Friday).
Japan: The Q2 GDP release (Friday) is awaited for an update on last quarter’s growth. The 0.2% contraction was the first after nine straight quarters of growth and was surely disappointment for BoJ, which left its accommodative policy in place last week. And any trade-related slowdown in China could spell further bad news if a softening in demand erodes exports. Other data this week includes June personal income and PCE (Tuesday) should show the latter contracting at a -2.0% y/y clip from -3.9% y/y previously. Bad weather may have accounted for some of the weaker than expected May result. July bank loan figures are on tap (Wednesday), while the June current account (Thursday) should reveal a narrowing in the surplus to JPY 1,300 bln from 1,983 bln. June machinery orders (Friday) are forecast falling 1.0% m/m after the 3.7% May decline. July PPI (Friday) should warm to 3.0% y/y from 2.8%, while the June tertiary industry index (Friday) is penciled in at -0.1% m/m from 0.1%.
China: The July trade report (Wednesday) is anxiously awaited given the increase in trade-related frictions. A slight narrowing is looked-for to $40.0 bln after the June balance widened to $41.6 bln from $24.3 bln. The jump in May imports may have been an attempt to beat the tariffs, which went into effect early last month. The markets will look to the July numbers for any signs of trade related slowing. July CPI (Thursday) is estimated at 2.1% y/y from 1.9%, with July PPI (Thursday) expected to cool to 4.4% y/y from 4.7%. July loan growth and new Yuan loans are tentatively due Friday.
Australia: RBA’s meeting (Tuesday) is the highlight, where no change is expected to the current 1.50% setting for the cash rate. RBA follows up the meeting with the quarterly Statement on Monetary Policy, which will provide updated growth and inflation projections. Governor Lowe speaks on “Demographic Change and Recent Monetary Policy” (Wednesday). Housing investment (Wednesday) is expected to rise 0.5% in June after the 1.1% gain in May.
New Zealand: RBNZ meeting (Thursday) is the main event. At the June meeting, RBNZ held rates at 1.75% and opened the door to a rate cut if necessary.
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Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex
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