- USDIndex – spiked to 109.95 highs yesterday and holds the BID @109.50 now. A strong NFP could lift the USD even higher. A weak number could prick the USD bubble from 20-yr highs. Strong Weekly Claims and PMI’s added to USD demand. Fed Fund Futures now at 74%/26% for 75bp vs. 50 bp at next Fed meeting.
- EUR – ECB action expected next week, but EUR remains under Parity lows of 0.9910, trades at 0.9970 now.
- JPY rallies again (new 24 yr highs) broke 140.00 & holds at 140.30 BOJ holding accommodative policy line, & yield differentials driving trend.
- GBP new multi-year lows under 1.1500 yesterday, back to 1.1550 now. New PM next week.
- Stocks US stocks halted 4-day slide (S&P500 3966). Nvidia -7.67%, AMD -3% weighed again. Futs. flat at 3968 now.
- Oil down again on weak outlook, lows at $86.25 and trades at $88.20 now.
- Gold – also down under $1700 to $1688 lows, back to $1702 now.
- BTC – recovers 20k again today, from 19.5k lows yesterday.
Overnight – NZD Trade Balance missed (-2.4% vs 0.6%) German Trade Balance better than expected (see below).
Today – US NFP & Factory Orders, EZ Producer Prices.
Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) EURNZD (+0.68%). Continued to recover from weekly lows at 1.6185 on Tuesday to 1.6450 today, next resistance 1.6485. MAs aligning higher, MACD histogram positive & signal line rising, RSI 63.62, H1 ATR 0.00238, Daily ATR 0.01615.
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Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
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