- USDIndex – Slips again as EUR and YEN see demand. Final FedSpeak remained Hawkish as news blackout starts. 88-90% chance of 75 bp hike up from 57% last week.
- EUR – ECB looking at 2% interest rates (currently 0.75%) to bring inflation to 2% target (currently 9.1%). 2024 exceptions 2.4% and 2% by 2025. Market expects 2-3 more rate hikes into December. Trades at 1.0100 now.
- JPY Govt spokesman (Kihara) – need to take steps to curb “excessive” Yen declines, stopped short of calling for BOJ intervention. However, USDJPY rallied from test of 142.00 Friday to 143.25 now.
- GBP Trades at 1.1643 despite miss for GDP earlier. London remains muted (politics suspended) but open ahead of Queen’s funeral next Monday (bank holiday).
- Stocks US stocks moved higher again as Dollar & Yields cooled (S&P500 4067) FUTS trade at 4076. Asian stock markets have rallied too, and European FUTS are higher pre-open.
- USOil topped at $87.50 on Friday on more chatter of supply issues. Trades at 86.30 now. 20-day moving average sits at $90.00.
- Gold – also rallied to $1728 and holds the key $1700 at $1720 now.
- BTC – rallied higher again, touching $22.2k earlier from $18.5k lows last week. Trades at 21.7k now.
Overnight & Today – UK Monthly GDP missed (0.25 vs 0.5%), ECB Survey of Analysts, Speeches from ECB’s Schnabel & de Guindos.
Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) EURJPY (+1.01%). Continues to rally from a test of 142.75 on Friday, trades at 144.80 now. MAs aligning higher, MACD histogram & signal line positive & rising, RSI 72.56 & OB, H1 ATR 0.00142, Daily ATR 0.00850.
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Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
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