- The USD Index recovered to 110.50 yesterday as the expected Republican “Red Wave” in the US Mid Term elections did not materialise. They will, however, likely take control of the House of Representatives, though the Senate may not be decided until after the Georgia runoff 8th December. Stocks fell significantly (1.95-2.48%) and Yields held at recent highs. The Crypto Complex tanked again as Binance withdrew its offer to bail out FTX and CEO, Bankman-Fried has filed for bankruptcy, and personally owes lenders over $650M. BTCUSD trades at $16.8k. Australian Inflation Expectations were hotter than expected at 6.0% vs. 5.4%. Asian markets followed Wall St. lower.
- EUR – declined from resistance at 1.0100, and tested the hugely psychological parity 1.0000 level.
- JPY – rotates through 146.00 from 145.25 lows and 146.75 highs.
- GBP – Sterling dipped to 1.1330 from 1.1550 yesterday but remains capped by 1.1400.
- Stocks – Wall Street broke a strong 3-day rally losing over 60% of recent gains. Big movers included DIS -13.16%, OXY -9.22% and TSLA -7.17%. META +5.18% (11k job loss announcement). US500 closed -79.54 (-2.08%) at 3748, FUTS trades at 3755 now.
- USOil – fell significantly again from $89.00 yesterday to $85.25 now. Inventories grew to +3.9m vs 0.3m and a drawdown last week of over -3.1m
- Gold – held onto its significant recent gains over $1700 and trades at $1705.
- BTC – crashed to $15.4k and more than a 2-year lows (Nov. 2021 over $60.0k). Binance walked away from the offer to buy FTX on due diligence concerns. FTX was valued at $32b at the beginning of 2022. Contagion continues COIN fell another 9.58% yesterday after Tuesday 10% fall and Robinhood has shed 32% of its value so far this week.
Today – US CPI, Weekly Claims. Speeches from Fed’s Waller, Harker, Logan, Daly, Mester, George & Williams, BOE’s Tenreyro, ECB’s de Cos, Schnabel, SNB’s Maechler.
Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) GBPAUD (+0.64%) rallied yesterday from an initial dip below 1.7600 yesterday to test 1.7780 now, next resistance 1.7800. MAs aligning higher, MACD histogram & signal line positive & rising, RSI 61.64 & rising, H1 ATR 0.00274, Daily ATR 0.02113.
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Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
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