As markets fully reopen today for 2023 it is time to take stock of the last month of 2022, where we can observe that the traditional December stock market rally was not forthcoming. Indeed at the time of the last decision of the FED which raised rates by 50 basis points on December 14, 2022, Chair Powell made it clear that the American Central Bank could maintain a constraining monetary policy in the long term in order to fight inflation. IMF Director Kristalina Georgieva said this week: “In the US we see that the labour market remains quite strong. However, this is a mixed blessing because if the labour market is very strong, the Fed may have to keep interest rates tighter for longer to bring inflation down.”
USDIndex (D1)
The USDIndex declined by -2.35% during the month of December. The price is currently at the level of $103.14 below the cloud of its KIJUN (Lv) and Tenkan (Lj); the lagging span (Lb) is below the cloud and its peers clearly meaning that it is in a bearish momentum. This retreat could lead the price to its lowest level at $102.44 and if it is broken it could reach its support at the level of $101.30. On the other hand, if the price rises again, it could reach $104.33.
EURUSD (D1)
The EURUSD rose by +2.80% during the month of December. The price is currently above its cloud, its KIJUN (Lv) and Tenkan (Lj) at the level of 1.0675; the lagging span (Lb) is above its peers and the cloud clearly signifying a bullish momentum, and the price could reach 1.0735. On the other hand, if the price starts to fall again, it could reach 1.0646 and then 1.0571.
USDJPY (D1)
The USDJPY declined by -5.14% during the month of December. The price is currently at the 130.919 level below its KIJUN (Lv) and Tenkan (Lj) clouds; the lagging span (Lb) is below the clouds and below its peers clearly meaning that it is in a bearish momentum. This decline could lead the price to its lowest level at 128.892 and if it is broken it could reach its support at the 127.409 level. On the other hand if the price goes up again it could reach 132.916.
GBPUSD (D1)
The GBPUSD rose by +0.33% during the month of December. The price is currently above its cloud, but below its KIJUN (Lv) and Tenkan (Lj) at the 1.2625 level; the lagging span (Lb) is above its peers and the cloud clearly signifying a moment of hesitation. The price could reach 1.2299 and then 1.2410. Conversely, if the price resumes its downward trend, it could reach 1.2027 and then around 1.1840.
US100 (D1)
The US100 declined by -9.10% during the month of December. The price is currently at the level of 10954.8 below its cloud of its KIJUN (Lv) and its Tenkan (Lj); the lagging span (Lb) is below the cloud and its peers clearly meaning that it is in a bearish momentum. This decline could lead the price to its lowest level at 10788.7 and if it is broken it could reach its support at the level of 10671.6 a second time. On the other hand, if the price rises again it could reach 11061.9.
US500 (D1)
The US500 declined by -5.79% during the month of December. The price is currently in its cloud, below its KIJUN (Lv) and above its Tenkan (Lj) at the level of 3844.37; the lagging span (Lb) is in the middle of its peers and in the cloud clearly signifying a moment of hesitation. The price could reach 3920.74 and then 3951.30. On the other hand, if the price starts to fall again, it could reach 3811.43 and then around 3766.26.
US30 (D1)
The US30 declined by -4.17% during the month of December. The price is currently above its cloud, below its KIJUN (Lv) and above its Tenkan (Lj) at the level of 33,316.15; the lagging span (Lb) is in the middle of its peers, above the cloud, clearly signifying a moment of hesitation. The price could reach 33,355.2 then 33,713.2. On the other hand, if the price starts to fall again, it could reach 32,554.3 and then around 32,205.
USOil (D1)
The USOil rose by +14.99% and was the big winner in December. The price is currently at the level of $80.46 below its cloud but above its KIJUN (Lv) and its Tenkan (Lj); the lagging span (Lb) is below the cloud and its peers meaning a moment of hesitation. The price could go towards its lowest level at $77.54 and if it is broken it could reach its support at the level of $75.27 a second time. On the other hand, if the price rises again, it could reach $83.65.
XAUUSD (D1)
Gold rose by +3.08% during the month of December. The price is currently above its cloud, its KIJUN (Lv) and its Tenkan (Lj) at the level of $1823.86; the lagging span (Lb) is above its peers and the cloud clearly signifying a bullish momentum. The price could reach $1832.24 and then $1841.60. On the other hand, if the price starts to fall again, it could reach $1805.81 and then around $1788.39.
BTCUSD (D1)
BTCUSD declined by -3.7% during the month of December. The price is currently at the level of $16,685k below its cloud, between its KIJUN (Lv) and its Tenkan (Lj); the lagging span (Lb) is below the cloud and in the middle of its peers clearly signifying a moment of hesitation, the price could reach $16,173k and if it is broken it could reach its support at the level of $15,418k. On the other hand, if the price goes up again, it could reach $18,358k.
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Kader Djellouli
Market Analyst
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