Market Update – May 25 – USD & Yields at 2-month highs, Stocks weak, Nvidia blockbuster

The USDIndex moved up to breach 104.00 on more safe haven Dollar buying as US debt ceiling talks continued to grind on and FOMC minutes showed a division on the need for more rate hikes. US stocks lost over -0.6% &  and are lower in Asia, NASDAQ FUTS buck the trend at +1.3% as NVIDIA reported massive demand for AI chips (shares were +24% after market close). Yields rallied, supporting the USD as 2-yr yields breached 4.4%.  Overnight, the US credit agency FITCH has put the United States’ AAA long-term foreign-currency issuer default rating on negative watch due to brinkmanship over the debt ceiling.
Overnight –  German GDP – misses at -0.3% vs. 0.0% and the GfK Consumer Climate also missed at -24.2 vs. -23.6. 
  • FX USDIndex has rallied to 104.00, a 2-month high and up from 100.73 lows on May 4. A stronger Dollar weighs on EUR which has tested down under 1.0730 lows today. JPY breached & holds 139.50, topping at 139.65 (a new 25-week high).  Cable slipped again to 1.2330 lows today, over 130 pips lower from yesterday’s top, but has now recovered the 1.2350 handle.  
  • Stocks – US markets closed lower again (-0.61% to -0.77%). NVDA -0.49% (+24% after the market close), ANF +31%, Urban Outfitters -+17.59%, Citi -3.0% TGT 2.76%US500 (-1.12%) closed -30.34 pts at 4115, FUTS are trading at 4149, below the key resistance at 4175. 

  • Commodities – USOil – Futures hold over the $74.00 zone following inventories which showed a huge drawdown of 12.5 million barrels vs expectations of a 1.9 million barrel build, on top of vague Saudi output cut threats. Gold – has moved back to the $1960 level, once again, having rejected a rally to $1980 and the 200-hr moving average. 
  • CryptocurrenciesBTC pushed to test under $26k earlier, down from  $27.3k highs yesterday, currently the $27k handle has been recovered and the pair trade  around $27.2k.   

Today US Weekly Claims,  GDP (2nd reading), PCE Prices (Prelim.) CBRT & SARB Policy Announcements, Speeches from BoE’s Haskel, ECB’s Lane, de Guindos, Wunsch, Makhlouf & Vujcic, Fed’s Barkin & Collins.

Biggest Mover @ (06:30 GMT) US100.F (+1.41%) Following Nvidia Earnings the FUTS has rallied from under 13,600 low’s yesterday to 13,866 now. MA’s aligned higher, MACD histogram & signal line positive & rising, RSI 66.20 & rising, H1 ATR 52.71, Daily ATR 0.0161.

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Stuart Cowell

Head Market Analyst

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