After a shorter-than-usual US session yesterday due to today’s Independence Day holiday (US cash markets will be closed), which saw only the strong performance of TSLA (+6.9%) stand out after excellent manufacturing and delivery data, the Australian RBA kept rates on hold at 4.1% overnight in a Fed-style move (”more time will help us assess the real consequences of our actions”). The move was expected by 15/31 economists polled by Reuters, with 16 expecting a 25 bps hike. Australia’s top monetary authority believes inflation has ”passed its peak” but ”some further tightening may be required”. Inflation for the month of May showed a cooling to 5.6% according to the Bureau of Statistics. Among yesterday’s news, the further 500k bpd cut announced by Russia as well as the extension of the Saudis’ 1m bpd cut for another month allowed Crude Oil to soar before fading its gains almost entirely. Also, Nasdaq refiled its Blackrock Spot BTC ETF listing application with the US SEC and BTC took advantage of this to rise above 31k. 2y10y US curve inverted up to -110.6 bps.
OPEC+ cuts, updated JUN 2023
- FX – The USDIndex is up 0.07% to 102.73 after having been up just 5 cents yesterday. EUR again just shy of 1.09, GBP almost flat at 1.2687. AUD has been mildly offered after last night’s RBA decision (-0.24%).
- Stocks – US Futures are slightly in red this morning (-0.03% US500/-0.09% USA100); APAC is indecisive: Nikkei is retreating from 33-year highs (-1%), China -0.20%, AU200 caught some bid after the CB decision reversing previous losses (+0.38%). TSLA +6.9%.
- Commodities – USOil rose up to $71.77, is now back at $70.08; Gold keeps climbing after having hit the intermediate support area just shy of 1.9k, now trading at 1924.80.
- Cryptos: BTC back above 31k.
Today – Germany Trade Balance, US Redbook index, CAD Manufacturing PMI, API weekly Crude Oil Stock. US Independence Day.
Biggest Mover @ (06:30 GMT) NEOUSD (+2.35%) to $9.68, RSI at 59.60, MACD positive and trying to raise its head again after a possible recent double top.
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Marco Turatti
Market Analyst
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