Yesterday, the UK Parliament rejected a series of 8 alternative Brexit options and it’s now or never for UK lawmakers given that, as an EU Commission spokesman commented, “if the Withdrawal Agreement is not ratified by the end of this week, Article 50 will be extended to 12 April”.
While usually not meeting on Fridays, the UK Parliament will convene tomorrow, in order to vote on something on which they have not yet received knowledge about. The situation is getting more and more convoluted as Theresa May cannot bring her deal to the table for a third time, without “substantial” changes. As both the Parliament and the EU seek clarifications regarding what will be debated, the PM’s plan will have to be quite altered in order to gain acceptance from the UK lawmakers, especially hard-line Brexiteers.
Interestingly, it is very difficult to see how May will be able to present a “substantially” different deal to the Parliament, without jeopardizing its acceptance by the EU.
Thus, this leaves the UK with two possible dates: either they agree on May’s proposed deal and leave on May 22, or they reject it and no-deal Brexit takes place on April 12. We have already examined the possible effects of a no-deal Brexit on the GBP in an earlier post, but, if you think that markets will be eager to discount these effects then you are absolutely right.
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Dr Nektarios Michail
Market Analyst
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