The central banks policy meetings remain in the spotlight, with RBA and RBNZ announcing interest rates next week. Data-wise, we have some of the heaviest data, with Chinese and US inflation numbers along with GDP for the 1st Quarter of 2019 out of UK.
Monday – 06 May 2019
Caixin Services PMI (CNY, GMT 01:45) – The Chinese Services PMI is expected to have increased to 52.8 in April, up from 54.4 in March.Markit Composite PMI and Retail Sales (EUR, GMT 08:00-09:00) – The EU Composite PMI is expected to remain at the three-month low of 51.3 in April, while Retail Sales are forecast to slip to 0.1% m/m in March, with the annual rate decelerating to 2.3% y/y from 2.8% y/y.
Tuesday – 07 May 2019
Retail Sales (AUD, GMT 01:30) – Retail sales are expected to come out lower, standing at 0.2% m/m in March, after climbing 0.8% in February.Interest Rate Decision (AUD , GMT 04 :3 0) – Ivey PMI (CAD, GMT 14:00) – A survey of purchasing managers, the Index provides an overview of the state of business conditions in the country. Expectations suggest that the Index will decline to 51.1 compared to 54.3 last month, although still remain above 50.BoJ Minutes (JPY, GMT 23:50) – BoJ Minutes are expected to shed more light as to how Japanese policymakers are assessing the current global slowdown and whether they plan any further policy actions.
Wednesday – 08 May 2019
Interest Rate Decision & Press Conference (NZD, GMT 02:00) – RBNZ is expected to cut interest rates at their respective May policy meeting, by 25 bp. This would take the cash rate to 1.50%. RBNZ will end the day with the release of the Statement on Monetary Policy along with a press conference at which they will propose how they are planning to formulate and implement monetary policy during 2019.Trade Balance (CNY, GMT 02:00) – Among the most prominent developments of late are China’s trade figures, which have contracted or slowed on an annual basis in recent months. Hence as the increase in tariffs and the slowing in China’s economy has weighed on the quantity of exports shipping out of the region, April’s exports are anticipated to drop to 2.3% y/y, from the 14.2% y/y. The trade balance is seen at $35 bln in April from $32.6B in March.
Thursday – 09 May 2019
Consumer Price Index (CNY, GMT 01:30) – April’s Chinese CPI is expected to grow to 0.1% m/m following the 0.4% m/m drop in March. The overall reading is estimated to post a gain up to 2.5% y/y.
Friday – 10 May 2019
Gross Domestic Product ( GBP , GMT 08 :30) – The economy’s most important figure, preliminary Q1 GDP is expected to be unchanged at 0.2% q/q.Consumer Price Index and Core (USD, GMT 12:30) – The headline CPI is estimated to rise 0.4% in April, after a similar reading in March. The overall CPI is expected to be up 2.1% y/y, from 1.9% in March. US Core CPI is estimated to rise 0.2% in April, following a 0.1% increase in March.Labour Market Data (CAD, GMT 12:30) – The unemployment rate is expected to hold at 5.8% in April, however the employment change is forecast to increase to 1K, after the 7.2k loss in March.
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Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
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