Economic Indicators & Central Banks:
Treasuries, Wall Street, and the US Dollar all posted small losses to start the abbreviated week of trading.
- The market is consolidating into quarter-end. This week’s supply is pressuring at the margin, while uncertainty over the Fed’s rate path is limiting buying. Though the just-published dots assuaged concerns over the prospects for less than 3 rate cuts this year, anxiety remains high, especially after Bostic said he trimmed his estimate to 1 easing this year from 2 previously.
- Stock markets traded cautiously overnight, as the quarter end comes into view. China bourses outperformed, while Nikkei and ASX corrected.
- The offshore Yuan strengthened for a second day after China’s central bank reinforced its support for the currency.
- Geopolitics: Ukrainian drone attacks have caused disruptions at Russian oil refineries, with around 12% of the country’s oil processing capacity reportedly impacted. A resolution calling for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza was vetoed by Russia and China and a terrorist attack in Russia over the weekend added to geopolitical risks as did fresh threats by Yemen-based Houthi militants against Saudi Arabia.
Market Trends:
- Wall Street slipped on profit taking ahead of quarter-end, having made strong gains since the start of the year and hitting record highs last Thursday.
- The Dow fell -0.41%, the S&P500 was off -0.31% and the NASDAQ was down -0.27%. For the quarter, the S&P500 and NASDAQ are up 9.44% and 9.15%, respectively, and the Dow is up 4.3%.
- DAX and FTSE100 futures are also in the red, while US futures have moved higher.
Financial Markets Performance:
- The USDIndex has been in consolidation mode at the start of the week and is currently trading at 103.77.
- The Yen strengthened against USD and CHF, but USDJPY is still at 151.20. Japan’s top currency officials warned against speculative moves in foreign exchange markets, after the recent weakness in the yen saw USDJPY climbing above 151 once again.
- Gold continues to trade near record highs, but the ascent has been capped by the recent rise in the Dollar and caution ahead of the US PCE price index, which is the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge and is due to be released on Friday.
- Copper prices fell amid ongoing demand concerns. For agricultural commodities, the ascent in cocoa prices remains noteworthy.
- USOIL inched higher above $81.50, amid fresh supply concerns.
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Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
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