- OPEC Meetings – OPEC meetings are usually held in Vienna and are attended by representatives from 15 oil-rich nations.
- Caixin Manufacturing PMI (CNY, GMT 01:45) – The Caixin manufacturing PMI is expected to hold into the neutral zone in June.
- Markit Manufacturing PMI (EUR and GBP, GMT 07:55-08:30) – In June, the German PMI is expected to remain unchanged in the negative region, while UK PMI is seen strengthening at 52.0 from 49.4 last month.
- ISM Manufacturing PMI (USD, GMT 14:00) – The ISM index is expected to fall to 51.5 in June from 52.1 in May, compared to a 14-year high of 61.4 in August. Overall, we’ve seen a stabilization in sentiment since the late-2018 pullback.
Tuesday – 02 July 2019
- Interest rate Decision and Statement (AUD, GMT 04:30) – Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to cut its cash rate by 25 bp to 1.00%. The CPI y/y rate came in at 1.3% from 1.8%, as the RBA targets underlying CPI at 2%-3%. The RBA stated this month that a rate cut “would be appropriate” should inflation remain weak. Australian OIS pricing is fully discounting a cut in the cash rate. Nevertheless, the Australian economy remains the most exposed developed-nation economy to China.
Wednesday – 03 July 2019
- United States – Independence Day – Early close at 13:00 GMT
- ADP Employment Change (USD, GMT 13:15) – Employment change is seen spiking to 150k in the number of employed people in June, compared to the weak 27k reading seen last month.
- ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (USD, GMT 14:00) – The ISM-NMI index is expected to fall to 56.0 in June from 56.9 in May and a 19-month low of 56.1 in March, versus a 13-year high of 60.8 in September.
Thursday – 04 July 2019
- United States – Independence Day
- Retail Sales (AUD, GMT 01:30) – Retail Sales are expected to climb to 0.2% for May, after falling to -0.1% last month.
Friday – 05 July 2019
- NFP and Labour Market Data (USD, GMT 12:30) – A 170k June nonfarm payroll rise is projected, following a 75k increase in May. The unemployment rate should remain steady at 3.6% from April, and hours-worked are estimated to rise 0.2%. Average hourly earnings should rise 0.3% m/m, for a y/y gain of 3.2%, above the 3.1% pace of April but below the 3.4% cycle-high pace of February. The payroll gains are seen averaging 169k in 2019, down from a 223k average in 2018.
- Labour Market Data (CAD, GMT 12:30) – The unemployment rate fell to 5.4% in May from 5.7% in April as the participation rate eased to 65.7 from 65.9. Hence, this strong reading is expected to hold for June, while employment change is expected to grow slightly up to 8K from the 27.7K seen in May after the 106.6k surge in April.
- Ivey PMI (CAD, GMT 14:00) – A survey of purchasing managers, the Index provides an overview of the state of business conditions in the country.
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Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
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