USDIndex – The Dollar index fell below the EMA 200 last Friday. This Friday, it could rise again above the EMA 200 data from the data of US economic data that came out yesterday, both positive and negative. The US Dollar index has been moving above the trend line like the EMA 200 for more than 2 years and has just dropped two times, at the end of June and on Monday.
While considering the interest rate of the upcoming Fed on 30 October, there is still speculation that the Fed may cut interest rates by another 0.25%, but this forecast is not hot. Like before, this was partly due to the risk of trade war problems which began to be resolved by the negotiations of the United States and China. However, US economic data from last month until now is still not very good. Most recently, durable goods orders fell by -1.1% from the last figure which increased 0.3%.
Interesting support is the EMA 200 line at 97.45, which if going down this round will find the next support at row 96.35. The first resistance is in the low zone in September at 97.65 and the next resistance is the zone high of May at 98.25.
As the Fed meets next week, where a 25 bps has been fully discounted, 200-EMA might be unable to provide further support to USDIndex.
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Chayut Vachirathanakit
Market Analyst – HF Educational Office – Thailand
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