Next week will be a busy one, either in the political, banking or data perspective. The BoC, FOMC and BoJ policy announcement are due Wednesday and Thursday. On the data side, consumer confidence, the ADP jobs report, advance Q3 GDP, manufacturing ISM, and of course, the October employment report are all on tap.
The EU delayed its decision on what length of Brexit extension to give the UK until early next week, having been discombobulated by PM Johnson’s threat to pull his Brexit deal should the opposition refuse his call for a general election.
Monday – 28 October 2019
- Tokyo CPI and Production Data (JPY, GMT 23:30) – The country’s main leading indicator of inflation is expected to have risen to 0.5% y/y in October from 0.4% last month, and to slip to 0.5% y/y from 0.6% in the CPI ex Food, Energy reading.
Tuesday – 29 October 2019
- Consumer Confidence (USD, GMT 14:00) – The Consumer confidence is expected to rebound to 128.0 in October from 125.1 in September and an 8-month high of 135.8 in July. Overall, confidence measures remain historically high.
Wednesday – 30 October 2019
- Consumer Price Index (AUD, GMT 00:30) – The Australian CPI is expected to have decreased to 0.5% in Q3 from 0.6% perhaps reflecting the weakening observed in the Australian economy over the last quarter.
- Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (EUR, GMT 11:00) – The German prel. HICP inflation was confirmed at 0.9% y/y in the final reading for September.
- US Gross Domestic Product (USD, GMT 12:30) – The preliminary GDP growth is expected at 1.4% in Q3, following 2.0% growth in Q2, with stronger growth of 1.9% in final sales in Q3 after a 3.0% Q2 clip.
- Event of the week – BoC Interest Rate Decision & Conference (CAD, GMT 14:00) The Bank of Canada is expected to hold rates at the current 1.75% setting. Recent upbeat economic data has sharply curtailed the chance for a rate cut, however as trade uncertainty remains elevated — negative impacts are evident in investment and exports — the flow of economic data as a whole suggests the current level of policy accommodation is sufficient for now.
- Event of the week – FED Interest Rate Decision & Conference (USD, GMT 18:00) – The FOMC likely to make 25 bp insurance cut at Oct 29, 30 FOMC given contraction in ISM and slowing in ISM-NMI, while the conditions that prompted the July and September easings are still in place.
Thursday- 31 October 2019
- Event of the week – BoJ Interest Rate Decision (JPY, GMT N/A) – A possible BoJ stimulus is anticipated as BoJ Governor Kuroda assured at the IMF that the Bank would maintain its accommodative policy posture and would not hesitate to add stimulus if risks rose.
- Gross Domestic Product (EUR, GMT 10:00) – German Preliminary Q3 GDP growth is expected to remain unchanged at 0.2% q/q. In Q2, the breakdown confirmed that domestic demand saved the day, as exports stagnated, while imports continued to rise.
- Consumer Price Index (EUR, GMT 10:00) – Core inflation in the Euro Area is expected to have slipped to 0.9% in October, compared to 1% in September, while the overall index is also expected to have increased to 1%, compared to 0.8% last month.
- PCE Prices and Index (USD, GMT 12:30) – The Fed’s favourite inflation measure is expected to remain unchanged on a monthly basis and to slip at 1.7% in the yearly basis. A 0.3% gain is seen in personal income in September after a 0.4% increase in August, alongside a 0.3% rise in consumption that follows a 0.1% August gain.
Friday – 01 November 2019
- Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate (USD, GMT 12:30) – Event of the Week – One of the most important monthly figures on the US economy, NFP is expected to have a 95k October rise, following a 136k increase in September, with a direct subtraction of 49k workers from the factory component thanks to the UAW-GM strike. An additional indirect hit to payrolls has been forecast from GM suppliers that we tentatively peg at 10k.
- ISM Manufacturing PMI (USD, GMT 14:00) – The ISM index is expected to rise to 49.0 in October from 47.8 in September, compared to a 14-year high of 61.4 in August of last year.
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Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
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