The week starts light again, with Eurozone Manufacturing PMI and the new ECB president Lagarde speech on Monday, followed by RBA rate statement and New Zealand’s jobs report on Tuesday. Bank of England dominates the week as the highly uncertain election campaign begun.
Monday – 04 November 2019
- Manufacturing PMI (EUR, GMT 08:55) – The German October Manufacturing PMI held steady at 41.9, with Germany’s manufacturing sector still firmly in recession. This picture is likely to be seen confirmed in the final readings for October.
Tuesday – 05 November 2019
- RBA Interest Rate Decision (AUD, GMT 03:30) – The RBA minutes from the September policy meeting, showed that the central bank remains disposed to further easing. However in the October minutes, Governor Lowe suggested that the Bank is not in a hurry to lower rates asap.
- ISM Non – Manufacturing PMI (USD, GMT 15:00) – The ISM-NMI index is expected to rise to 54.0 in October from 52.6 in September and a prior 19-month low of 56.1 in March, versus a 13-year high of 60.8 in September of last year.
- Labour Market Data (NZD, GMT 21:45) – The Final reading for Q3 employment change is expected to show further negative labor reports. the unemployment rate is anticipated at 4.0% from 3.9%, while participation rate is seen rising at 70.9%.
Wednesday – 06 November 2019
- Retail Sales (EUR, GMT 10:00) – Retail sales moved up 0.3% m/m in August, a partial rebound from the -0.5% m/m decline in the previous month. However, in September the latest slowdown in labour market could keep overall consumption underpinned in the third quarter. The September Retail sales are seen at 0.1% m/m.
Thursday- 07 November 2019
- Event of the week – BoE Interest Rate Decision and MPC Vote (GBP, GMT 12:00) – The BoE at the last meeting already indicated that even if uncertainty persists it may need to act to prop up the economy and the upcoming November meeting will bring the BoE’s quarterly updates on growth and inflation. It will come amid a still muddy picture on the Brexit front and just ahead of a general election, so central bankers may be weary of being accused of interfering in the political process if they lean too much out of the window on the Brexit front.
Friday – 08 November 2019
- Labour Market Data (CAD, GMT 13:30) – Total employment grew 53.7k in September after the 81.1k surge in August, leaving two months of robust jobs growth that came in well above expectations. The unemployment rate fell to 5.5% in September from 5.7% in August. For October, the unemployment rate is expected to rise at 5.7% while participation rate should remain unchanged.
- Michigan Sentiment (USD, GMT 15:00) – The preliminary US consumer sentiment for November is forecast at 94.7, 0.8 points below the final in October.
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Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
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