- Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (EUR, GMT 12:00) – The German HICP inflation is expected to hold at 0.5% y/y for June.
Tuesday – 30 June 2020
- Gross Domestic Product (GBP, GMT 06:00) – The GDP is the economy’s most important figure. Q1’s GDP is expected to remain unchanged at -1.6% y/y and -2% q/q. As for the Q2 GDP, a severe contraction is expected after the 20.4% m/m contraction seen in April.
- Consumer Price Index and Core (EUR, GMT 09:00) – The Euro Area flash CPI for June is forecasted to remain steady, at 0.1% y/y.
- Gross Domestic Product (CAD, GMT 12:30) – The April GDP is expected to contract at -18.2%. The Q1 GDP revealed a -8.2% pandemic driven drop, marking a hefty pull-back in activity as lockdown measures shuttered much of the economy in the second half of March.
- Consumer Confidence (USD, GMT 14:00) – Consumer confidence is expected to rise to 89.0 from 86.6 in May and a 6-year low of 86.9 in April. This compares to an 18-year high of 137.9 in October of 2018 and a recession-low of 25.3 in February of 2009. The present situation index is expected to improve to 78.5 from a seven-year low of 71.1 in May. All of the available confidence measures were oscillating near historic highs before being crushed by COVID-19, and even with big drop-backs, it’s remarkable how firm the consumer measures have stayed relative to prior recessions.
- Treasury Secretary Mnuchin speech
- Feds Chair Powell testimony
Wednesday – 01 July 2020
- Canada and Hong-Kong – Holiday Day
- Caixin Manufacturing PMI (CNY, GMT 01:45) – The Caixin manufacturing PMI is expected to hold into the neutral zone in June.
- Markit Manufacturing PMI and Unemployment data (EUR, GMT 07:55) – In June, the German PMI is expected to once again show weakness in German manufacturing and a lift in the jobless rate at 6.6%, despite the wage subsidies and announced stimulus from the government. These are unlikely to prevent a further rise in official jobless numbers to around the 3 million mark by the end of the year, highlighting the impact of the pandemic on the economy.
- ADP Employment Change (USD, GMT 12:15) – Employment change is seen spiking to 3.5 mln in the number of employed people in June, compared to the -2,760k May ADP drop.
- ISM Manufacturing PMI (USD, GMT 14:00) – The ISM index is expected to rise to 49.0 in June from 43.1 in May.
Thursday – 02 July 2020
- NFP and Labour Market Data (USD, GMT 12:30) – A 3,000k June nonfarm payroll increase is projected, after a 2,509k rebound in May and a -20,527 April collapse.An assumption has been made for a 600k factory jobs increase in June, after a 225k May rise, with a big lift from a re-opening vehicle sector. The jobless rate should fall to 12.0% from 13.3% in May and a 14.7% peak in April. The continuing claims data have been slow to moderate, but nearly all other measures of activity have risen into June from a trough just after the April BLS survey week. Average hourly earnings are assumed to fall another -1.0% in June with a continued unwind of the April distortion from the concentration of layoffs in low-wage categories. This would translate to a drop in the y/y gain to 5.3% from 6.7%.
Friday – 03 July 2020
- United States – Independence Day
- Retail Sales (AUD, GMT 00:30) – Retail Sales are expected to flatten at 16.3% for May.
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Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
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