EURUSD, H1
US ADP reported private payrolls rose 2.369 million in June. Also, May was revised sharply higher, by 5.825 million to a 3.065 million increase (was -2.760 million). April’s -19.409 million was a record plunge. Jobs in the goods production sector increased 457,000, with construction jobs up 394,000. Service sector employment increased 1.912 million, with gains of 961,000 in leisure/hospitality, 283,000 in education/health, and 151,000 in professional/business services. A robust private payrolls. The ADP climb beats the modest improvement in the continuing and initial claims data for the period, but undershoots the bigger sales, sentiment, and output gains in other measures, and is in line with the payroll gain expected for tomorrow’s jobs report. ADP gains were fairly evenly dispersed across increases of 873,000 for large companies, 559,000 for medium companies, and 937,000 for small companies.
US final June Markit manufacturing rose to 49.8 (was 49.6 in the preliminary) from May’s 39.8. It is a fourth month of contraction and was at 50.6 a year ago. But the weakness is abating from the 36.1 record low from April amid re-openings of the economy. The 10-point surge in the index was a record jump, and it is now the highest reading since February. Output climbed to 47.5 from May’s 34.4, with new orders also moving higher.
US equity markets have opened in positive territory, rebounding from early losses on the futures market following reports of positive results on a vaccine from Pfizer and BioNTech.
EURUSD pushes towards 1.1250 following a dip to 1.1184 earlier, USDJPY pivots around 107.50, down from Asian session highs at 108.06 and the USA500 trades at 3115 and highs of the day. FOMC Minutes due at 18:00 GMT.
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Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
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