Events to Look Out for Next Week

• Retail Sales (EUR, GMT 06:00) – Retail sales are expected to confirm the contraction seen at the start of the year at -5.9% m/m, more than anticipated originally, but hardly a surprise after dismal German data. New lockdown measures clearly were the main reason for the correction – especially in Germany, where restrictions have been more severe than in other major Eurozone countries. The annual rate dropped back to -6.4% from 0.9% y/y at the end of last year, although the hope is that with easing restrictions there will be a strong rebound later in the year.

Tuesday – 13 April 2021

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• Industrial and Manufacturing Production (GBP, GMT 06:00) – Industrial and Manufacturing Production are expected to have grown, with both providing an upwards contribution of 0.7% m/m and 0.8% m/m respectively in February.
• Gross Domestic Product (GBP, GMT 06:00) – Gross Domestic Product have should improved after the -2.9% last month.
• Economic Sentiment (EUR, GMT 09:00) – German April ZEW economic sentiment is seen to have risen at 79.1 compared to 76.6.
• Consumer Price Index (USD, GMT 12:30) – The US March CPI is expected to gain 0.5% for the CPI headline and 0.2% for the core, following a 0.4% gain for the headline and 0.1% for the core in February. CPI gasoline prices look poised to bounce 10% in March. Disruptions from February’s cold wave may have added to more general supply bottlenecks that are lifting prices, and further disruptions should be seen in March and April from the Suez Canal closure.

Wednesday – 14 April 2021

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• Rate Statement & Interest Rate (NZD, GMT 01:00) – No change to the 0.25% policy setting is expected by the RBNZ, nor any change of the current QE program. The guidance fits an emerging theme in central bank policymakers’ narratives, warning that the sharp economic rebound from the lockdown trough is likely to taper off, with a long road envisaged back to economic normalcy.

Thursday – 15 April 2021

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• Labour Market Data (AUD, GMT 01:30) – Employment is anticipated to gain 30K in March after the 88.7k gain in February. The unemployment rate should rise to 6.3% in March.
• Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (EUR, GMT 06:00) – The German HICP final inflation for March is anticipated to decline to 1.6% y/y from 2.0% y/y.
• Retail Sales (USD, GMT 12:30) – A jump is seen to a 3.5% March headline with a 3.0% ex-autos increase, following respective February drops of -3.0% and -2.7%. We expect a 10% bounce for the CPI gasoline index that should provide a boost to service station sales. Sales will face a big March lift from the recent round of stimulus checks, following a big February headwind from the Texas freeze and cold weather across the midwest and east coast, but a prior January stimulus boost.

Friday – 16 April 2021

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• Retail Sales & Gross Domestic Product (CNY, GMT 02:00) – The March Retail sales headline is expected to slow down at 27.2% y/y, from 33.8% last month. The final Q1 Gross Domestic Product should decline slightly to 6.1% y/y from 6.5% y/y.
• Consumer Price Index (EUR, GMT 09:00) – The Eurozone March inflation is expected unchanged at 0.2% m/m while Core inflation should drop back to 0.1% m/m from 1.0% m/m. Looking ahead, there is equally the risk that underlying inflation pressures will build faster than officials currently expect. Like in other countries, much will depend on when and to what extent demand bounces back once economies have fully re-opened. That will also depend on wage growth and labour market developments.
• Michigan Index (USD, GMT 14:00) – We expect the preliminary April Michigan sentiment report to improve to a 1-year high of 89.0 from a prior 1-year high of 84.9 and a 6-month low of 76.8 in February, with a big lift from expanding vaccine availability and new stimulus spending. The 1-year inflation gauge should tick up to 3.2% from 3.1% in March, versus a 3.3% high in February that was last seen in July of 2014. All the confidence measures are climbing into Q2 with vaccine distributions, stimulus deposits, and the easing of coronavirus restrictions, following a slight downward tilt through the holidays.