Events to Look Out for Next Week

• United States – Independence Day
• Retail Sales (AUD, GMT 01:30) – Australian final Retail Sales for May expected to confirm at 0.1% m/m.
• UK Services PMI (GBP, GMT 08:30) –  The June services is expected lower after it was upwardly revised to 62.9 in May and the composite at 62.0 from 62.9. Still strong readings that signal very robust expansion, although the government’s decision to delay the full lifting of lockdown measures and continue to restrict foreign travel seems to have left its mark.

Tuesday – 06 July 2021

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• Event of the week – Interest rate Decision (AUD, GMT 04:30) – No changes are expected from RBA to the 0.10% OCR, especially after the stellar May jobs data that could push Governor Lowe not to extend the timeline of the bank’s yield control measures next month. Especially the drop in the jobless rate, which came despite a parting back of official employment support measures suggests that the recovery is strengthening. RBA governor Lowe will also participate in a panel discussion in Sydney where market participants will watch for clues on the policy outlook.
• European Commission releases Economic Growth Forecasts (EUR, GMT 09:00)
• Retail Sales and ZEW (EUR, GMT 09:00) – 4.4% May retail sales gains are expected for the Eurozone, following the contraction by 3.1%, while June German ZEW investor confidence should dipped to 75.4 from 79.8.
• ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI  (USD, GMT 14:00) – The ISM-NMI is anticipated to fall to 63.0 from 64.0 in May, 62.7 in April, and 63.7 in March, leaving the four highest readings in history.

Wednesday – 07  July 2021

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• JOLTS Job Openings (USD, GMT 14:00) – JOLTS define Job Openings as all positions that have not been filled on the last business day of the month. May’s JOLTS job openings is expected to fall slightly at 8.300M, following the 9.286M in April.
• Ivey PMI (CAD, GMT 14:00) – A survey of purchasing managers, the Index provides an overview of the state of business conditions in the country.
• FOMC Meeting Minutes (USD, GMT 18:00) – The minutes could spark some light on the start and speed of the Fed’s tapering program.

Thursday – 08 July 2021

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• ECB Special Strategy Meeting – European Central Bank policymakers will hold a special meeting in Frankfurt in a bid to wrap up the institution’s strategy review. The gathering is expected to put the finishing touches on a new definition of price stability. The discussion, while not a formal monetary policy meeting, may also shape the ECB’s plans for when and how to exit the emergency measures it deployed during the pandemic. Its 1.85 trillion-euro ($2.19 trillion) bond-buying program is set to run at least until March 2022.

Friday – 09 July 2021

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• Consumer Price Index (CNY, GMT 01:30) – The June’s Chinese CPI is expected to grow to 1.6% from 1.3%  on a yearly basis.
• Industrial and Manufacturing Production (GBP, GMT 06:00) – Industrial Production is expected to have risen to 1.2% m/m, with the overal Manufacturing production is forecasted at 41.8% y/y in May from 39.7% y/y. both providing a growth at 1.2% m/m and 1.5% m/m in April.
• Unemployment Rate (CAD, GMT 12:30) – Employment in Canada has delined by  -68.0k in May following the -207.1k tumble in April, as the third wave of restrictions continued to weigh on the labour market.  The Canadian unemployment rate is expected to have remained stable at 8.2% in June as employment could fall by -20K.