A 600k July Non-Farm payroll increase is anticipated, after gains of 850k in June and 583k in May. The jobless rate should drop to 5.7% from 5.9% in June and 5.8% in May. Hours-worked are assumed to rise 0.7% after a 0.2% June increase, while the workweek ticks up to 34.8 from 34.7 in June as some of the constraints in the labor market dissipate.
The labor market data have been significantly distorted by a number of factors that have caused a major mismatch of supply and demand, including ongoing effects from the pandemic, indlucing various restrictions and child care issues, unemployment benefits, and seasonal factors, while the chip shortages continue to plague various industries, and especially in autos.
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Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
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