Events to Look Out for Next Week

Tuesday – 09 November 2021

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• Economic Sentiment (EUR, GMT 10:00) – German November ZEW economic sentiment is seen to have declined at 20.0 from 22.3.
• Producer Price Index (USD, GMT 13:30) – October’s PPI headline is expected at 0.5% gains for both the headline and core, following respective gains of 0.5% and 0.2% in October. As expected readings would result in the y/y headline PPI metric ticking down to 8.5% from an 8.6% pace in September that was the sixth consecutive all-time high. The y/y core measure is seen to hold steady from 6.8% in September, carrying on a seven-month streak of all-time highs. Both the headline and core y/y metrics look poised to peak around year-end at the earliest. The massive PPI climb since the start of 2021 exceeded the uptrend in headline and core CPI data, and both sets of gains are chasing outsized increases in the trade price measures, alongside ongoing supply constraints that have provided a powerful lift for the inflation indexes.

Wednesday – 10 November 2021

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• Consumer Price Index (CNY, GMT 01:30) – October’s Chinese CPI is expected to grow by 0.6% m/m from 0.1% m/m while the headline should double to 1.4%.
• Consumer Price Index (USD, GMT 13:30) – October gains of 0.4% are seen for the CPI headline and 0.2% for the core, following the same respective gains in September of 0.4% and 0.2%. CPI gasoline prices look poised to jump 5% in October. As-expected October figures would result in a 5.7% y/y increase that would mark a 31-year high, following a 13-year high of 5.4% in September that sits just below a prior cyclical peak of 5.6% in July of 2008. Core prices should show a 4.2% y/y rise from 4.0% in September, versus a 29-year high of 4.5% in June. Widespread production bottlenecks are lifting all the inflation metrics in 2021, such as PPI and the trade price indexes, alongside a boost to the y/y figures from base effects that have largely dissipated.
• Jobless Claims (USD, GMT 13:30) – The initial claims downtrend gained steam in October, after moderating in September. Initial claims averaged 285k in October, versus much higher prior averages of 341k in September, 352k in August, and 393k in July. The 291k BLS survey week reading undershot recent survey week readings of 351k in September, 349k in August and 424k in July. Initial claims have most recently fallen to a second consecutive cycle-low of 269k.

Thursday – 11 November 2021

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• Employment and Unemployment Rate (AUD, GMT 00:30) – The Australian jobs market is expected to show a mixed employment report, with a growth of a 50k jobs in October but after with the unemployment  ticking  up to 4.7% from 4.6% in September.
• Gross Domestic Product and Manufacturing Production (GBP, GMT 07:00) – GDP is the economy’s most important figure. Preliminary Q3 GDP is expected to grow by 1.5% q/q and 6.8% y/y. Manufacturing Production for September is forecasted to slowdown at 0.1% m/m from 0.5% m/m last month.
• ECB Economic Bulletin & EU Economic Forecasts (EUR, GMT 09:00-10:00)

Friday – 12 November 2021

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• Jolts Job Opening (USD, GMT 15:00) – September’s Jolts Job Openings  are anticipated at 10.925M from 10.439M.