Treasuries recovered yesterday after some hefty losses in recent sessions pushed some rates up to the cheapest levels since May 2019. Reports of big inflows into Treasuries from quarterly portfolio rebalancing supported the rally, as did a stellar 20-year sale. And buying begot more buying to leave rates measurably lower.
Today there is a somewhat different picture than yesterday, as bonds rallied across the board and stocks traded mixed. Japanese markets corrected some of this week’s stellar gains after the minutes to the latest BoJ meeting showed officials flagging the risk of overshooting inflation. Oil prices are consolidating at high levels, as the Ukraine war drags on. For Europe, Putin’s demand that future gas deliveries should be paid in rubles raised the risk of imminent embargoes, as it may force the west to break its own sanctions. Energy prices will remain high then, putting pressure on governments to ease the burden for consumers and complicating the outlook for central banks. The UK budget was based on a sharply lower growth projection and a markedly higher inflation forecast and more revisions could well be necessary.
- USD up (USDIndex 98.88).
- 10-year Bund future is slightly higher, while the Treasury future is down 8 ticks, and in cash markets the US 10-year rate has lifted 4.7 bps to 2.339%.
- Equities – Tencent Holdings Ltd reported its slowest pace of quarterly growth on record, which kept a lid on the Hang Seng. In the ASX there were gains for miners and others benefiting from stronger commodity prices. DAX and FTSE 100 futures up 0.1% and a 0.5% rise in the NASDAQ is leading US futures higher.
- USOil – consolidated at high levels and USOIL is now at $114.89 after posting a high at 116.62.
- Gold – ranging at $1943.
- Bitcoin up, retesting the $43,500 resistance level again.
- FX markets – EURUSD down to 1.0974, USDJPY extends to 121.73 and Cable steady at yesterday’s low, at 1.3179.
Today – SNB and Norges Bank are set to announce policy today, with the latter seen delivering another rate hike. Data releases include preliminary PMI reports for the Eurozone, UK and US, along with Durable goods.
Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) USDCHF (+0.32%) Rebounded to 0.9344. Fast MAs aligned higher, RSI at 60 and Stochastic at OB, while MACD remains negative. H1 ATR 0.00088, Daily ATR 0.00658.
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Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
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