AUDUSD, H1
The RBA left the cash rate unchanged but tweaked the inflation outlook. The decision to leave the cash rate at 1.50% had been widely anticipated. On inflation, RBA Governor Lowe’s statement said that CPI is likely to be lower than previously expected in 2018 – at 1.75% below, the 2%-3% target band – but at the same time inflation is seen rising more than previously forecast in 2019 and 2020. The RBA said that it expects GDP growth to average a little more than 3% in 2018 and 2019. It stated that the unchanged policy is consistent with meeting the CPI target over time. Slower Chinese growth was noted. Market focus will now turn to upcoming release of the Statement on Monetary Policy (SMP), this Friday, August 10, for detail on the forecast tweaks. The Australian Dollar initially dipped on Lowe’s statement before more than reversing the losses and now eyes the psychological 0.7400. Support sits at the 200 period moving average at 0.7394, the daily pivot point and 20 period moving average at 0.7388 and the the lower Bollinger band at 0.7376. Initial Resistance is the 0.7398-7402 zone, yesterday’s high at 0.7410 and R2 at 0.7420. RSI remains positive and rising at 61.38.
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Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex
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