USDJPY, H1
The Dollar headed slightly higher following the mix of data, where retail sales beat expectations, productivity was higher than forecast, and unit labor costs printing a negative outcome. The Empire State index was much better as well. EURUSD dipped to 1.1318 from 1.1330, remaining just over the trend low of 1.1309 seen ahead of the open.
Interesting is the drift of USDJPY below the 111.00 barrier, which comes in contrast with the rest US crosses. An hourly closing below this barrier will suggest the retest of the next Support levels at 110.70 and 111.50. Immediate Resistance holds at 111.30.
US retail sales rose 0.5% in July, with the ex-auto component up 0.6%, a little better than expected. But, the 0.5% increase in June sales was revised down to 0.2% after the 1.2% surge in May (revised from 1.3%); the 0.4% June gain in the core rate was bumped down to 0.2% following May’s 1.4% jump. Sales excluding autos, gas, and building materials increased a solid 0.6% after rising 0.2% previously. Auto sales edged up 0.2% last month, while gas station sales rose 0.8%. Building materials were flat. Furniture sales dipped 0.5%. Clothing sales jumped 1.3%. Health, personal care sales dropped 0.4%. Non-store retailer sales were up 0.8% from a 0.7% gain previously (revised from 1.3%) with no clear effect from Amazon’s Prime Day. General merchandise rose %. Miscellaneous sales rose 0.7%. Sporting goods sales dropped 1.7%. All in all this is a decent report for sales.
Meanwhile, US Empire State manufacturing index bounced 3 points to 25.6 in August after falling 2.4 points to 22.6 in July. It was 24.2 last August. The index hit a cycle high of 33.2 in October 2009, and an expansion low of -16.9 in February 2016.
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Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex
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