- USDIndex – Slips (108.00 tested) for a 5th straight day, lifting EUR & GBP. Fed Funds Futures back to 90% chance of 75 bp (third consecutive) hike. 10-yr Bond Auction was weak, only filled after it hit 3.33% (2.76% last time). “Higher for longer” mantra from Reuters Poll¹. Has Inflation peaked ?
- EUR – Trades at 1.0135 now from a test of 1.0200 yesterday.
- JPY markets not convinced BOJ intervention is imminent. Although Yen up today against others still weak vs. USD, touched 143.50 yesterday and holds 142.30 now.
- GBP traded over 1.1700 yesterday and holds 1.1723 now, following good jobs data. London remains muted (politics suspended) but open ahead of Queen’s funeral September 19 (Bank Holiday).
- Stocks US stocks moved higher again as Dollar & Yields cooled (S&P500 +1.06% 4110) FUTS trade at 4121. Nasdaq best performer (APPL +3.85%, PTON +7.18%). Asian stock markets have rallied too, and European FUTS are higher pre-open.
- USOil topped at $89.00 on Monday on more chatter of supply issues and possible easing of geopolitical tensions. Trades at $86.75 now. 20-day moving average sits at $89.00.
- Gold – also rallied to $1735 and holds over $1720 now.
- BTC – rallied higher too and holds at $22.3k.
Overnight & Today – UK Jobs, (Wages beat & Unemployment Rate fell back, Claimant Count reversed sharply (+20.8k) German HICP (steady at 8.8%). To come German ZEW and US CPI.
Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) AUDJPY (-0.51%) Signs the 6-week rally from 90.00, maybe cooling. Topped at 98.45 earlier back under 98.00 to 97.76 now. MAs aligning lower, MACD histogram & signal line positive but falling, RSI neutral 43.20, H1 ATR 0.174, Daily ATR 0.972.
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Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
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