Market Update – May 8 – Sentiment Firming; A Cooler USD & Rising Stocks

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The USD continues under pressure (USDIndex 100.88) after a monumental week saw the FED & ECB’s 25 bp hikes (could it be the last from the FED?), another US bank failure, a jobs report beat, (253k vs 181k) and better than expected earnings, especially, from the biggest of all companies – Apple.  Stocks rallied on Friday, and have followed through in Asia today, Yields cooled again with the AUD and NZD outperforming. The UK and France are closed on quiet data day. Berkshire Hathaway announced $35.5bn profits   
Week Ahead Topped by US CPI data (Wednesday) and the BOE Rate Decision (Thursday).
  • FXUSDIndex continues to be biased lower, from 101.50 highs on Friday back to test support from last week at 100.88, EUR tested 1.0970 lows on Friday but recovered 1.1000 to trade at 1.1033 now. JPY rallied from 134.00, breached 135.00 but trades at 134.70 now. Sterling holds over the key break of  1.2500 last week, breached 1.2600 on Friday and is testing 1.2650 now. 
  • Stocks-US markets closed strongly (+1.65% to 2.25%) (#APPL +4.69%%,  #TSLA +5.50%) US500 closed +1.65% 4136, FUTS are trading at 4147 today and still below the key resistance at 4175 & 4150

  • Commodities – USOil – Futures hold onto Friday gains and trade at $71.70 as recession fears still swirl, but up from the breach of the 18-mth low at $64.00 last week. Gold – tested back into $2000 on Friday, but is up to $2020 now. 
  • Cryptocurrencies BTC has tumbled over 5% from Friday highs over $29.6k to test  $28.0k once again, today. 

Today German Industrial Output (missed -3.4% vs +2.1%) , EZ Sentix, Fed Senior Loan Officer Survey, NY SCE, ECB Survey of Monetary Analysts, Speech from ECB’s Lane, Earnings from PayPal.

Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) AUDUSD (+0.29%). Continued to gain from Friday’s rally from 0.6700 to 0.6780 now. MAs aligned higher, MACD histogram & signal line positive but flat, RSI 72.45, OB but also flat, H1 ATR 0.00096 Daily ATR 0.00621.

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Stuart Cowell

Head Market Analyst

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