The US Election Tuesday is the overwhelming focus and will wrest attention from everything else. There are some events that would normally highlight, including the FOMC, BoE, and RBA meetings.
Asia & European Sessions:
- November kicked off with the employment report for October and it did not disappoint in terms of distortions from hurricanes and strikes along with the shortened survey period. There were obvious weather impacts on jobs.
- Election jitters, as well fiscal fears over deficits/debt extended selling pressures after Treasuries saw their biggest loss in two years during October.
- Des Moines Register poll is indicating Harris leading Trump 47%-44% in Iowa, a state he has previously won.
- The “Trump trades” typically support higher Treasury yields and a stronger US Dollar, but other polls suggest a very close race, with voters evenly divided both nationally and in key swing states.
- European futures rose alongside US markets following Wall Street’s gains on Friday, bolstered by strong earnings reports from companies like Amazon and Intel.
- Japanese markets are closed for a holiday, resulting in no Treasury trading during Asian hours.
- In China, officials announced measures to attract foreign investment just days before the US election, raising concerns about how a potential return of Trump could affect the world’s second-largest economy.
- In addition to the US election, there are some events that would normally highlight, including the FOMC, BoE, and RBA meetings.
-
- The Fed is widely expected to cut -25 bps (Thursday) to 4.625%.
- The RBA (Tuesday) is expected to maintain a hawkish hold at 4.35%.
- The BoE’s decision (Thursday) is much more uncertain. We see a good chance of a -25 bp cut, though there is non-negligible risk rates will stay put until December.
- Data ahead includes US ISM Services and productivity. There are also PMI reports from Europe, China, and Japan. China also has trade, and Japan has earnings and spending.
-
Financial Markets Performance:
- The USD weakened to 103.50 as investors scaled back their expectations for Donald Trump’s chances in the upcoming US presidential election, following recent polls showing Kamala Harris gaining traction. It experienced its largest drop in over two months.
- Oil prices rose to $70.53 after OPEC+ postponed an output increase. The USOil climbed nearly 2% today due to OPEC+ and as Iran intensified its rhetoric against Israel.
- The MXN, (USDMXN at 20.29) which plummeted after Trump’s 2016 win, was the best-performing major currency.
- Amazon climbed 6.2% after delivering a bigger profit for the latest quarter than analysts expected and was the strongest force pushing the S&P500 higher.
- Intel rallied 7.8% despite reporting a worse loss than expected.
Click here to access our Economic Calendar
Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
