GBPUSD, H1
A drop in the Pound provided some directional action in otherwise narrow trading ranges so far today. The Yen managed to eke out fresh lows against the Dollar and other currencies before finding a footing. The Pound was showing a 0.4% loss against the Euro as of the late London morning session, and was showing a 0.3% decline against both the Dollar and Euro.
While GBPJPY has punched out a five-day high, Cable and EURGBP have remained within their respective Monday ranges, with the Pound reversing most, but so far not all, of the gains seen yesterday.
The rotation lower in the UK currency has been driven by news of a rise in support for Labour and a concurrent ebb in support for the Conservative party in latest opinion polling. Politico’s poll tracker is showing Labour support at 31%, up 2 points from yesterday, with support for the Tories down a point, to 42%. A second poll by Kantar also showed that Labour has squeezed the Conservative lead to 11 points from 18 over the past week. A hung parliament would mean more Brexit uncertainty.
All eyes will be on the key YouGov Multilevel Regression and Post-stratification (MRP) poll which will be published at 22:00 GMT on Wednesday November 27, and will be published first by The Times newspaper. “YouGov’s official MRP model accurately forecast the hung parliament in the 2017 General Election, even correctly projecting that seats such as Kensington & Chelsea and Canterbury would be won by the Labour Party,” it said. Today is the last chance for Brits to register to vote in the 12 December election, as the deadline is midnight (GMT).
Cable moved lower at 08:00 GMT breaching the Daily pivot point at 1.2884 and moving below S1 at 1.2855.
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Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
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