AUDJPY, H1
The Yen has rallied on a safe-haven bid as global stock markets turn lower after President Trump, nearly two months after announcing the limited “Phase 1” trade deal with China, said that trade negotiations may be postponed until after the 2020 presidential election. This after announcing intentions to tariff steel imports from Brazil and Argentina. Disappointing Q3 GDP out of Australia, a country that is highly exposed to the US-China trade, was also in the mix. Growth came in at 0.4% q/q in the antipodean economy, against a median of 0.5%. USDJPY printed a 13-day low at 108.43, while EURJPY and AUDJPY descended into respective one-week low territory and is the biggest moving pair today, down some -0.6%. The Australian Dollar has been the day’s biggest loser out of the main currencies. AUDUSD more than reversed gains seen yesterday on the less dovish than expected RBA statement, in making a low of 0.6814. The AUDJPY triggered lower yesterday on the Crossing EMA Strategy, H1 at 13:00 GMT (1) move down to T1 (2), retraced to Entry (3) to close T2 flat. It then triggered lower again (4) and moved to T1 (5) and T2 (6) for a net move of 47 pips for both legs lower.
The Dollar, outside the case of USDJPY, has held firm, finding its own safe haven bid. The sharpest in six months drop in the U.S. 10-year T-note yield yesterday was a reflection of this safe haven bid, which is why forex markets haven’t been trading on yield differential dynamics in the latest phase. Both EURUSD and Cable both drifted moderately lower, before a bid on Sterling saw cable breach 1.3000 and trade over 1.3040 and post a new six month high. Elsewhere, EURCHF has dropped for a third consecutive trading day, this time hitting a three-week low at 1.0923. The decline in the cross have correlated with the prevailing risk-off phase that started at Friday’s release of disappointing U.S. manufacturing ISM data.
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Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
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