The week ahead will be a quiet one due to the limited economic releases, with the most telling data the preliminary estimates of July manufacturing PMIs from across the globe.
Monday – 20 July 2020
PBoC Interest Rate Decision (CNY, GMT 01:30) – The People’s Bank of China announced heavy government and PBoC stimulus measures in the 1st half of the year. However, China’s central bank isn’t planning much more stimulus for the country as its economy looks to be recovering.National CPI Index (JPY, GMT 23:30 ) – The Japanese price index should have zeroed on a y/y basis, compared to 0.1% in May.
Tuesday – 21 July 2020
RBA Minutes ( AUD , GMT 00:30 ) – The RBA minutes will provide more insight on the views the Australian Central Bank has about the economy.Retail Sales (CAD, GMT 12:30) – Core Canadian sales ex Autos are anticipated to have dropped by -13.5% m/m in May, but higher than April’s drift at -22% m/m.
Wednesday – 22 July 2020
Consumer Price Index and Core (CAD, GMT 12:30) – June BoC CPI is expected higher at 0.9% y/y from 0.7% y/y and at 0.2% m/m from 0.3% m/m in May.Existing Home Sales (USD, GMT 13:00-14:00) – A 22.8% rebound is anticipated in existing home sales in June to a 4.800 mln pace, after a drop to 3.910 mln in May. The MBA purchase index surged by 40% in May and 17% in June, before a 3% rise thus far in July, after falling -21.8% in April. Existing home sales are tracked at closings, so sales by this measure remained weak into May even though the sector was bouncing. The median sales price is expected to rise to $285,000 in June to leave a y/y decrease of -0.1%, down from a 2.3% y/y rise in May, with potential downward pressure from a skewing of sales toward lower-cost areas. In Q1, we saw an average sales pace of an elevated 5.483 mln, and we expect a lower 4.347 mln pace in Q2.
Thursday – 23 July 2020
Jobless Claims (USD, GMT 12:30) – US initial jobless claims declined -10k to 1,300k in the week ended July 11 following the -98k drop in the July 4 week to 1,310k (was 1,314k). It’s a 15th straight weekly decline since the record surge to a historic peak of 6,867k in late March.
Friday – 24 July 2020
Retail Sales ( GBP , GMT 06 :00) – Following the -9.8% m/m contraction in UK retail sales ex fuel in May, they are expected to decline further by -14.4% in June.Services and Manufacturing PMI (EUR, GMT 08:00) – June PMIs marked contraction in manufacturing activity and a sharp slowdown in services sector growth. This picture is likely to be seen again in the preliminary readings for July, as German Manufacturing PMI has been forecast at 41.5 and composite at 44.2, which it is still below neutral. Meanwhile, Services PMI is expected to fall to 42.0. The Manufacturing and Services PMI for Eurozone is seen at 44.5 and 41 respectively.UK Service PMI (GBP, GMT 08:30) – The preliminary services PMI for July are seen to remain in contraction levels at 47.0.Services and Manufacturing PMI (USD, GMT 13:45) – Preliminary Manufacturing are expected to slip in July, to 48 from 49.8.
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Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
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